Match Info

BRAZIL: PAULISTA - ROUND 12

Date: 10 March 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol)

Referee: Dias Araujo V. G. (Bra)


	Mirassol		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.25	3.2	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.1
	2.3	3.2	3.1	Watch
	2.4	3.2	3.22
	2.4	3.17	3.22
	2.2	3.1	3
	2.28	3.13	3.13	Watch
	2.21	3.05	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (1.82)	3.15 ↓ (3.4)	3.13 ↓ (4.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirassol
40.6%

Draw
29.6%

São Bernardo
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

27.5%

21%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

29.8%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mirassol's form might have worsened.

São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting São Bernardo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+15%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mirassol, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for São Bernardo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Mirassol - São Bernardo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vanderlei (G) 33. Wanderson 3. Lucas Gazal 4. Luiz Otavio 28. Warley 18. Ronald Lopes 5. Yuri Lima 21. Diego Goncalves 77. Paulinho Boia 16. Marcelo Nunes 49. Dellatorre	1. Alex Alves (G) 3. Helder Maciel 91. Alan Santos 4. Rafael Forster 66. Vitor Ricardo 31. Lucas Lima 17. Romisson 6. Arthur Henrique 7. Lucas Tocantins 88. Silvinho 99. Kayke
Substitutes
23. Alex Muralha (G) 10. Chico Kim 8. Danielzinho 7. Fernandinho 27. Gabriel 14. Isaque 26. Miguel Silva 11. Negueba 12. Sidnei (G) 13. Wesley Santos	27. Anareto K. (G) 26. Davi Gabriel 21. Hugo Sanchez 43. Joao Ramos 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 33. Kaua Jesus 14. Luiz Filipe 11. Matheus Regis 5. Paulo Eduardo 8. Rodrigo Souza
Coaches
Mozart	Marcio Zanardi

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Mirassol could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Mirassol will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Mirassol won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Mirassol won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
02.03.24	Portuguesa - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
24.02.24	Palmeiras - Mirassol	3:1 ✺
17.02.24	Mirassol - Botafogo SP	2:1 ✺
14.02.24	Ituano - Mirassol	1:1 ✺
11.02.24	Mirassol - Santos	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLWTT
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
03.03.24	São Bernardo - Água Santa	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
28.02.24	Olaria - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
25.02.24	Santos - São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
19.02.24	São Bernardo - Santo André	1:0 ✺
15.02.24	São Bernardo - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
26.03.23	São Bernardo - Mirassol	1:0 penalties
26.01.23	Mirassol - São Bernardo	4:1
06.03.22	São Bernardo - Mirassol	1:1
22.02.17	São Bernardo - Mirassol	0:1
16.03.13	Mirassol - São Bernardo	3:4

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