Match Info

J1 League - Round 9

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Best Denki Stadium (Mito)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Mito HollyHock		Shimizu S-Pulse

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.00	2.30	Watch
	3.10	3.00	2.35
	2.70	3.00	2.60	Watch
	3.27	3.18	2.49
	2.79	3.25	2.59	Watch
	3.25	3.10	2.40
	3.14	3.04	2.47	Watch
	3.10	3.00	2.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↑ (2.7)	3.07 ↓ (3.31)	2.45 ↓ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mito HollyHock
30.7%

Draw
30.7%

Shimizu S-Pulse
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

28.5%

36.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.5%

29%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mito HollyHock has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Shimizu S-Pulse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mito HollyHock than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shimizu S-Pulse than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

Mito HollyHock - Shimizu S Pulse Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Mito HollyHock will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Shimizu will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Nishikawa K. (G) 25. Mase T. 50. Ieizumi R. 17. Itakura K. 6. Okamoto K. 30. Okumura J. 38. Hugo Leonardo 19. Semba T. 11. Torikai Y. (C) 8. Kato C. 22. Taniguchi K.	16. Umeda T. (G) 24. Sugai H. 3. Takahashi Y. 15. Honda Y. 25. Brunetti M. 21. Matsuzaki K. 2. Diego 17. Yumiba M. 49. Kitagawa K. (C) 9. Oh Se-Hun 8. Inoue K.
Substitutes
2. Fofana M. 20. Funabashi Y. 15. Kimoto Y. 9. Nemoto R. 27. Slowik J. (G) 29. Tada K. 18. Uchino K. 39. Yamamoto H. 48. Yamashita Y.	50. Fujii T. 13. Germain R. 18. Hirato T. 19. Kinoshita K. 81. Kozuka K. 1. Oki Y. (G) 47. Shimamoto Y. 51. Sumiyoshi J. 70. Takagi S.
Coaches
Kimori D.	Yoshida T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Torikai Y. ↓, Uchino K. ↑,
24', Oh Se-Hun 🟨,
26', Uchino K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Kitagawa K. ↓, Shimamoto Y. ↑,
46', Oh Se-Hun ↓, Germain R. ↑,
46', Inoue K. ↓, Fujii T. ↑,
46', Hugo Leonardo ↓, Funabashi Y. ↑,
48', 1 - 0, Kato C. ⚽, Taniguchi K. (A),
67', Uchino K. ↓, Nemoto R. ↑,
67', Okumura J. ↓, Tada K. ↑,
67', Matsuzaki K. ↓, Kinoshita K. ↑,
70', Mase T. 🟨,
75', 1 - 1, Fujii T. ⚽, Shimamoto Y. (A),
84', Diego ↓, Hirato T. ↑,
85', Kato C. ↓, Yamamoto H. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 2, Sugai H. ⚽, Fujii T. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mito HollyHock won 0.

Mito HollyHock has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Shimizu shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Mito HollyHock could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Mito HollyHock has faced a series of away games on the road.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Mito HollyHock: Fofana M. (Hamstring Injury) Iwasaki H. (Broken Leg) Kamiyama M. (Finger Injury).

Confirmed absences for Shimizu: Ishikawa K. (Knee Injury).

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Mito HollyHock has recorded 0 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 5:10 (averaging 0.7:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Mito HollyHock against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:3 goals (averaging 1:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Mito	4	1	2	1	6:5	1	5
16	Shimizu S-Pulse	4	1	0	3	1:3	-2	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mito HollyHock
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Fukushima United - Mito HollyHock	0:7 ✺
Japan J1 League
19.09.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Mito HollyHock	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Mito HollyHock - Kawasaki Frontale	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.09.26	Nagano Parceiro - Mito HollyHock	0:1 penalties ✺
Japan J1 League
05.09.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Mito HollyHock	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WLLWT
- Shimizu S-Pulse
Japan Emperors Cup
07.10.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1 ET ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Zweigen Kanazawa - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
19.09.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - JEF United Chiba	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Shimizu S-Pulse	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
06.10.24	Mito HollyHock - Shimizu S-Pulse	2:2
26.05.24	Shimizu S-Pulse - Mito HollyHock	2:1
11.11.23	Mito HollyHock - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:1
18.02.23	Shimizu S-Pulse - Mito HollyHock	0:0
18.09.16	Shimizu S-Pulse - Mito HollyHock	2:1
Japan Emperors Cup
03.09.16	Shimizu S-Pulse - Mito HollyHock	3:0
Japan J2 League
04.06.16	Mito HollyHock - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:0

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