Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 21 January 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Louis II (Monaco) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	14:45	ESPN
Armenia	21:45	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	04:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	18:45	Pickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 5
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:45	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	14:45	Claro TV+, Max, Sky+, TNT, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	19:45	Max Sport 3
Canada	12:45	DAZN Canada
China	01:45	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Colombia	12:45	ESPN
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	19:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	18:45	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	18:45	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	19:45	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1, MTV Urheilu 2
France	18:45	beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 1
Georgia	21:45	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	18:45	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	19:45	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong Kong	01:45	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	18:45	RTL+, Sport 1
Iceland	17:45	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	23:15	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2
Indonesia	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Ireland	17:45	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Israel	19:45	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	18:45	NOW TV, Sky Calcio 1, Sky Sport 254, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	02:45	Wowow Prime
Kosovo	18:45	ART Motion Sport 1
Laos	00:45	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	18:45	TSN Malta 6
Mexico	11:45	HBO Max, MAX, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Myanmar	00:15	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	18:45	Ziggo Sport 3
New Zealand	06:45	DAZN New Zealand
North Central America	—	ESPN Norte, RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
North Macedonia	18:45	TDM Desporto
Norway	18:45	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
Pakistan	22:45	Tapmad
Peru	12:45	ESPN
Philippines	01:45	beIN Connect
Poland	18:45	Canal+ Extra 2
Portugal	17:45	DAZN 1
Romania	19:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	20:45	Okko Sport
Serbia	18:45	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	01:45	beIN Sports 3, StarHub TV+
Slovakia	18:45	Voyo
South Africa	19:45	SuperSport Premier League
South America	—	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Spain	18:45	M+ Liga de Campeones 2
Sweden	18:45	Viaplay
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	01:45	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	00:45	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United Kingdom	17:45	BBC Radio 5 Live, BBC Radio, beIN Sports MENA English 1, Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports Ultimate
Usa	12:45	CBS, Paramount+, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	13:45	ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	00:45	TV 360
International	17:45	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app, Virgin TV Go app


	Monaco		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.6	2.63
	2.55	3.3	2.7
	2.65	3.45	2.7	Watch
	2.66	3.5	2.73
	2.65	3.47	2.7	Watch
	2.5	3.4	2.62
	2.66	3.63	2.72
	2.65	3.45	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.16)	3.48 ↓ (3.61)	2.69 ↓ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monaco
36.7%

Draw
27.6%

Aston Villa
35.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.3%

26.4%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

27.2%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monaco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Monaco's form might have worsened.

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aston Villa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monaco, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aston Villa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
32.3%	27.7%	40%

Monaco - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 62 users predict this event. Monaco will win (votes: 19 - 30.6%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 26 - 41.9%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 27.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 29.6% – 54.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Majecki R. (G) 2. Vanderson 17. Singo W. 5. Kehrer T. 13. Mawissa Elebi C. 6. Zakaria D. (C) 15. Camara L. 11. Akliouche M. 18. Minamino T. 7. Ben Seghir E. 36. Embolo B.	23. Martinez E. (C) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 5. Mings T. 12. Digne L. 44. Kamara B. 8. Tielemans Y. 31. Bailey L. 10. Buendia E. 27. Rogers M. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
42. Bouabre S. 12. Caio Henrique 27. Diatta K. 37. Diop E. 10. Golovin A. 16. Kohn P. (G) 50. Lienard Y. (G) 88. Magassa S. 41. Michal L. 20. Ouattara K. 22. Salisu M. 4. Teze J.	26. Bogarde L. 9. Duran J. 18. Gauci J. (G) 22. Maatsen I. 20. Nedeljkovic K. 25. Olsen R. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 50. Swinkels S. 72. Young K.
Coaches
Hutter A.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Singo W. ⚽, Kehrer T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Digne L. 🟨,
56', Bailey L. ↓, Duran J. ↑,
65', Camara L. ↓, Magassa S. ↑,
65', Ben Seghir E. ↓, Golovin A. ↑,
67', Digne L. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
78', Minamino T. ↓, Michal L. ↑,
78', Zakaria D. ↓, Teze J. ↑,
82', Rogers M. 🟨,
86', Rogers M. ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
86', Buendia E. ↓, Bogarde L. ↑,
90+2', Kamara B. 🟨,
90+2', Golovin A. 🟨,

Preview

Monaco is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Aston Villa is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Monaco could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Monaco have a series of guest games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Monaco: Balogun F. (Shoulder Injury) Diatta K. (Injury) Ilenikhena G. (Groin Injury) Singo W. (Back Injury) Zakaria D. (Illness)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Calf Injury) Diego Carlos (Yellow Cards) McGinn J. (Thigh Injury) Torres P. (Foot Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Monaco
French Ligue 1
17.01.25	Montpellier - Monaco	2:1 ✺
Coupe De France
14.01.25	Reims - Monaco	2:1 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
10.01.25	Nantes - Monaco	2:2 ✺
French Super Cup
05.01.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
22.12.24	L`Union Saint Jean - Monaco	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLTLW
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
18.01.25	Arsenal - Aston Villa	2:2 ✺
15.01.25	Everton - Aston Villa	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.25	Aston Villa - West Ham United	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
04.01.25	Aston Villa - Leicester City	2:1 ✺
30.12.24	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWWWT

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