Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 21 January 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stade Louis II (Monaco)

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
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Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
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Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
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Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
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Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1, MTV Urheilu 2
France	beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 1
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
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Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
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World	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app, Virgin TV Go app


	Monaco		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.6	2.63
	2.55	3.3	2.7
	2.65	3.45	2.7	Watch
	2.66	3.5	2.73
	2.65	3.47	2.7	Watch
	2.5	3.4	2.62
	2.66	3.63	2.72
	2.65	3.45	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.16)	3.48 ↓ (3.61)	2.69 ↓ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monaco
36.7%

Draw
27.6%

Aston Villa
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

26.4%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

27.2%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monaco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Monaco's form might have worsened.

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aston Villa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Monaco, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aston Villa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
32.3%	27.7%	40%

Monaco - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 62 users predict this event. Monaco will win (votes: 19 - 30.6%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 26 - 41.9%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 27.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 29.6% – 54.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Majecki R. (G) 2. Vanderson 17. Singo W. 5. Kehrer T. 13. Mawissa Elebi C. 6. Zakaria D. (C) 15. Camara L. 11. Akliouche M. 18. Minamino T. 7. Ben Seghir E. 36. Embolo B.	23. Martinez E. (C) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 5. Mings T. 12. Digne L. 44. Kamara B. 8. Tielemans Y. 31. Bailey L. 10. Buendia E. 27. Rogers M. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
42. Bouabre S. 12. Caio Henrique 27. Diatta K. 37. Diop E. 10. Golovin A. 16. Kohn P. (G) 50. Lienard Y. (G) 88. Magassa S. 41. Michal L. 20. Ouattara K. 22. Salisu M. 4. Teze J.	26. Bogarde L. 9. Duran J. 18. Gauci J. (G) 22. Maatsen I. 20. Nedeljkovic K. 25. Olsen R. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 50. Swinkels S. 72. Young K.
Coaches
Hutter A.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Singo W. ⚽, Kehrer T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Digne L. 🟨,
56', Bailey L. ↓, Duran J. ↑,
65', Camara L. ↓, Magassa S. ↑,
65', Ben Seghir E. ↓, Golovin A. ↑,
67', Digne L. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
78', Minamino T. ↓, Michal L. ↑,
78', Zakaria D. ↓, Teze J. ↑,
82', Rogers M. 🟨,
86', Rogers M. ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
86', Buendia E. ↓, Bogarde L. ↑,
90+2', Kamara B. 🟨,
90+2', Golovin A. 🟨,

Preview

Monaco is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Aston Villa is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Monaco could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Monaco have a series of guest games.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Monaco: Balogun F. (Shoulder Injury) Diatta K. (Injury) Ilenikhena G. (Groin Injury) Singo W. (Back Injury) Zakaria D. (Illness)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Calf Injury) Diego Carlos (Yellow Cards) McGinn J. (Thigh Injury) Torres P. (Foot Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Monaco
French Ligue 1
17.01.25	Montpellier - Monaco	2:1 ✺
Coupe De France
14.01.25	Reims - Monaco	2:1 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
10.01.25	Nantes - Monaco	2:2 ✺
French Super Cup
05.01.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	1:0 ✺
Coupe De France
22.12.24	L`Union Saint Jean - Monaco	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLTLW
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
18.01.25	Arsenal - Aston Villa	2:2 ✺
15.01.25	Everton - Aston Villa	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
10.01.25	Aston Villa - West Ham United	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
04.01.25	Aston Villa - Leicester City	2:1 ✺
30.12.24	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWWWT

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