Match Info

ENGLAND: Premier League - Round 20

Date: 4 January 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Gillett J. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, Showmax, Supersport Action, SuperSport Football, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport OTT 2, SuperSport Variety 1
Argentina	12:00	ESPN, TNT
Armenia	19:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, beIN Sports MENA Max 2, TOD
Australia	02:00	Optus Sport
Austria	16:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 2
Belgium	16:00	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
Bosnia And Herzegovina	16:00	Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	12:00	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	17:00	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	10:00	fubo Sports Network 4 DRM
China	23:00	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	10:00	ESPN
Croatia	16:00	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	17:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech Republic	16:00	CANAL+ Sport 5
Denmark	16:00	Viaplay
Finland	17:00	Viaplay, V Sport 1
France	16:00	Canal+ Live 7
Germany	16:00	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 2, WOW
Greece	17:00	Nova Sports Prime
Hong Kong	23:00	M Plus Live, Now E, Now Player, NOW Premier League 3
Iceland	15:00	Siminn Sport 3
India	20:30	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	22:00	Vidio
Italy	16:00	NOW TV, Sky Sport 257
Japan	00:00	U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	21:00	Setanta Sports
Malaysia	23:00	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 3, SKY NET Sports 2, Sooka
Malta	16:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	09:00	HBO Max, MAX, TNT Go, TNT Sports
Mongolia	23:00	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	16:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	04:00	Sky Sport 3
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
North Macedonia	16:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	16:00	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 2
Peru	10:00	ESPN
Poland	16:00	Viaplay
Portugal	15:00	DAZN 3
Romania	17:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Singapore	23:00	Hub Premier 3, StarHub TV+
Slovenia	16:00	Arena Sport 4
South America	—	ESPN South
South Korea	00:00	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime+
Spain	16:00	DAZN 3, DAZN Espana, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	16:00	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Thailand	22:00	True Premier Football 4
Turkey	18:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 MAX
Usa	10:00	Peacock TV, SiriusXM FC, Sport 24 Extra
Venezuela	11:00	ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	22:00	ON Plus, ON Sport
International	15:00	Disney+, JioTV app


	Aston Villa		Leicester City

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.25	8.5
	1.33	5.75	8.5
	1.33	6	9	Watch
	1.35	5.74	8.94
	1.36	5.49	8.72
	1.33	5.5	8.5
	1.35	5.9	8.85	Watch
	1.33	6	9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↑ (1.32)	5.7 ↑ (5.63)	8.75 ↓ (9.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
72.1%

Draw
16.9%

Leicester City
11%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

72.5%

17%

10.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.2%

16.8%

10.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Leicester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leicester City than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.1%	6.9%	6.9%

Aston Villa - Leicester City Predictions

Users Predictions: Aston Villa will win (62 of 72 users predict this - 86.11%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.12% – 94.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 5. Mings T. 12. Digne L. 44. Kamara B. 6. Barkley R. 31. Bailey L. 8. Tielemans Y. 7. McGinn J. (C) 11. Watkins O.	41. Stolarczyk J. (G) 2. Justin J. 4. Coady C. 23. Vestergaard J. 33. Thomas L. 8. Winks H. 24. Soumare B. 18. Ayew J. 11. El Khannouss B. 10. Mavididi S. 9. Vardy J. (C)
Substitutes
26. Bogarde L. 10. Buendia E. 56. Jimoh-Aloba J. 22. Maatsen I. 20. Nedeljkovic K. 25. Olsen R. (G) 24. Onana A. 41. Ramsey J. 50. Swinkels S.	37. Alves W. 40. Buonanotte F. 17. Choudhury H. 20. Daka P. 14. De Cordova-Reid B. 3. Faes W. 31. Iversen D. (G) 5. Okoli C. 22. Skipp O.
Coaches
Emery U.	van Nistelrooy R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', McGinn J. ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
58', 1 - 0, Barkley R. ⚽,
62', Vestergaard J. ↓, Faes W. ↑,
63', 1 - 1, Mavididi S. ⚽,
76', Barkley R. ↓, Buendia E. ↑,
76', Digne L. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
76', 2 - 1, Bailey L. ⚽, Maatsen I. (A),
82', Coady C. ↓, Okoli C. ↑,
82', El Khannouss B. ↓, Daka P. ↑,
83', Ayew J. ↓, Buonanotte F. ↑,
90', Thomas L. ↓, De Cordova-Reid B. ↑,
90+5', Soumare B. 🟨,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 9 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aston Villa won 3.

Recent matches Aston Villa is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Leicester has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Aston Villa is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Duran J. (Red Card) Rogers M. (Yellow Cards) Torres P. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Leicester: Fatawu I. (Knee Injury) Hermansen M. (Muscle Injury) McAteer K. (Knock) Ndidi W. (Thigh Injury) Opoku N. (Broken Leg) Pereira R. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Leicester: Faes W. (Injury)

Last 16 head-to-head matches Aston Villa won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 21:26 (average 1.3:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Aston Villa won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 13:15 (average 1.6:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English Premier League
30.12.24	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:2 ✺
26.12.24	Newcastle United - Aston Villa	3:0 ✺
21.12.24	Aston Villa - Manchester City	2:1 ✺
14.12.24	Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.24	RB Leipzig - Aston Villa	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TLWLW
- Leicester City
English Premier League
29.12.24	Leicester City - Manchester City	0:2 ✺
26.12.24	Liverpool - Leicester City	3:1 ✺
22.12.24	Leicester City - Wolverhampton Wanderers	0:3 ✺
14.12.24	Newcastle United - Leicester City	4:0 ✺
08.12.24	Leicester City - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
31.08.24	Leicester City - Aston Villa	1:2
04.04.23	Leicester City - Aston Villa	1:2
04.02.23	Aston Villa - Leicester City	2:4
23.04.22	Leicester City - Aston Villa	0:0
05.12.21	Aston Villa - Leicester City	2:1
21.02.21	Aston Villa - Leicester City	1:2
18.10.20	Leicester City - Aston Villa	0:1

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