Match Info

FRANCE: Ligue 1 - Round 28

Date: 7 April 2024, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Lissorgue R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:00	Arena Sport
Croatia	15:00	Arena Sport
Czech Republic	15:00	Voyo
France	15:00	Amazon Prime Video
Serbia	15:00	Arena Sport
Slovenia	15:00	Arena Sport
International	13:00	beIN Sports Connect


	Montpellier		Lorient

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.8	4.2	Watch
	1.8	3.8	4.1
	1.82	3.7	4.25	Watch
	1.85	3.96	4.24
	1.83	3.98	4.31
	1.75	4	4.2
	1.85	4.08	4.35	Watch
	1.83	3.9	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.67)	3.9 ↓ (4.06)	4.24 ↓ (4.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
52.8%

Draw
24.6%

Lorient
22.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.1%

23.4%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

21.8%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Lorient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Montpellier, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Montpellier - Lorient Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 15 - 71.4%). Lorient will win (votes: 3 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Montpellier: 52.1% – 90.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lecomte B. (G) 29. Tchato E. 27. Omeragic B. 5. Sagnan M. 35. Mincarelli L. 13. Chotard J. 12. Ferri J. 11. Savanier T. 9. Al-Tamari M. 7. Nordin A. 10. Khazri W.	38. Mvogo Y. (G) 13. Mendy F. 32. Adjei N. 95. Toure I. 7. Katseris P. 19. Abergel L. 6. Louza I. 12. Yongwa D. 10. Bouanani B. 44. Kari A. 9. Bamba M.
Substitutes
8. Adams A. 16. Bertaud D. (G) 70. Coulibaly T. 19. Delaye S. 36. Hefti S. 6. Jullien C. 23. Karamoh Y. 18. Leroy L. 77. Sacko F.	14. Bakayoko T. 11. Dieng B. 1. Gomis A. (G) 24. Kalulu G. 22. Kroupi E. J. 15. Laporte J. 37. Le Bris T. 5. Mendy B. 21. Ponceau J.
Coaches
Der Zakarian M.	Le Bris R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Ferri J. 🟨,
42', Savanier T. 🟨,
44', Yongwa D. 🟨,
45+1', Mendy F. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Al-Tamari M. ↓, Coulibaly T. ↑,
51', Adjei N. 🟨,
55', 1 - 0, Savanier T. (Pen),
58', Ponceau J. 🟨,
59', Bamba M. 🟨,
61', Khazri W. 🟨,
69', Kari A. ↓, Ponceau J. ↑,
71', Khazri W. ↓, Karamoh Y. ↑,
76', Yongwa D. ↓, Mendy B. ↑,
76', Louza I. ↓, Bakayoko T. ↑,
76', Ferri J. ↓, Jullien C. ↑,
81', Bouanani B. ↓, Kroupi E. J. ↑,
81', Bamba M. ↓, Dieng B. ↑,
90', 2 - 0, Karamoh Y. ⚽, Nordin A. (A),
90+5', Katseris P. 🟨,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 13 and 16 in the zone Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 4.

Recent matches Montpellier is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lorient is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Montpellier is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 10 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 34-23.

Including matches at home between the teams Montpellier won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 16-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
31.03.24	Le Havre - Montpellier	0:2 ✺
17.03.24	Montpellier - Paris Saint-Germain	2:6 ✺
08.03.24	Nice - Montpellier	1:2 ✺
03.03.24	Montpellier - Strasbourg	2:2 ✺
25.02.24	Olympique Marseille - Montpellier	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WLWTL
- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
31.03.24	Lorient - Brest	0:1 ✺
17.03.24	Monaco - Lorient	2:2 ✺
09.03.24	Lorient - Lyon	0:2 ✺
03.03.24	Rennes - Lorient	1:2 ✺
24.02.24	Lorient - Nantes	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
01.10.23	Lorient - Montpellier	0:3
14.05.23	Montpellier - Lorient	1:1
29.12.22	Lorient - Montpellier	0:2
20.02.22	Lorient - Montpellier	0:1
22.08.21	Montpellier - Lorient	3:1
03.03.21	Montpellier - Lorient	1:1
29.11.20	Lorient - Montpellier	0:1

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