Match Info

FRANCE: LIGUE 1 - ROUND 22

Date: 18 February 2024, Sunday

Location: Stade de la Mosson (Montpellier)

Referee: Stinat J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Voyo
France	Amazon Prime Video
Portugal	Eleven Sports 5
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Montpellier		Metz

	1	X	2
	1.65	4	5.25	Watch
	1.63	3.75	5.5
	1.65	3.9	5.35	Watch
	1.71	3.8	5.8
	1.66	3.9	5.85
	1.6	3.7	5.5
	1.69	4.06	5.17	Watch
	1.66	3.9	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.75)	3.88 ↑ (3.71)	5.5 ↑ (4.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
57.9%

Draw
24.7%

Metz
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

25.6%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

21%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-13.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Montpellier that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Metz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.1%	13.2%	15.8%

Montpellier - Metz Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 27 - 71.1%). Metz will win (votes: 6 - 15.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 13.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Montpellier: 56.7% – 85.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lecomte B. (G) 27. Omeragic B. 4. Kouyate K. 5. Sagnan M. 13. Chotard J. 36. Hefti S. 12. Ferri J. 11. Savanier T. (C) 3. Sylla I. 7. Nordin A. 9. Al-Tamari M.	16. Oukidja A. (G) 22. Van Den Kerkhof K. 38. Sane S. 8. Traore I. 29. Herelle C. 3. Udol M. (C) 34. Nduquidi J. 18. Camara L. 27. Jean Jacques D. 11. Lamkel Ze D. 10. Mikautadze G.
Substitutes
8. Adams A. 16. Bertaud D. (G) 70. Coulibaly T. 22. Fayad K. 23. Karamoh Y. 18. Leroy L. 35. Mincarelli L. 77. Sacko F. 29. Tchato E.	99. Asoro J. 25. Atta A. 5. Cande F. 2. Colin M. 1. Dietsch G. (G) 15. Lo A. 14. Sabaly C. 37. Sane I. 17. Tetteh B.
Coaches
Der Zakarian M.	Boloni L.

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 2.

Montpellier is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Metz has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Montpellier could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Montpellier is a favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Montpellier won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 17-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Montpellier won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier HSC
French Ligue 1
11.02.24	Montpellier - Lyon	1:2 ✺
Coupe De France
07.02.24	Montpellier - Nice	1:4 ✺
French Ligue 1
03.02.24	Rennes - Montpellier	2:1 ✺
28.01.24	Montpellier - Lille	0:0 ✺
Coupe De France
24.01.24	Feignies Aulnoye - Montpellier	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLLTW
- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
09.02.24	Olympique Marseille - Metz	1:1 ✺
04.02.24	Metz - Lorient	1:2 ✺
27.01.24	Nice - Metz	1:0 ✺
14.01.24	Metz - Toulouse	0:1 ✺
Coupe De France
05.01.24	Metz - Clermont	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
17.12.23	Metz - Montpellier	0:1
01.05.22	Montpellier - Metz	2:2
01.12.21	Metz - Montpellier	1:3
03.02.21	Metz - Montpellier	1:1
16.12.20	Montpellier - Metz	0:2
05.02.20	Montpellier - Metz	1:1
02.11.19	Metz - Montpellier	2:2

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