What is the expert prediction for Metz vs Lorient?

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Metz vs Lorient Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Sunday, May 10, 2026)

Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 33

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz)

Referee: Stinat J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Caze TV
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 7
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Metz		Lorient

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.7	2.2	Watch
	3.1	3.6	2.15
	3.05	3.65	2.22	Watch
	3.16	3.75	2.28
	2.95	3.7	2.25	Watch
	3	3.4	2.15
	3.25	3.7	2.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↑ (2.86)	3.64 ↑ (3.49)	2.22 ↓ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metz
30.9%

Draw
26.2%

Lorient
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

26.9%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

26.8%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Lorient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5%	20%	75%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Metz will win (votes: 1 - 5%). Lorient will win (votes: 15 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lorient: 56% – 94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lorient (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
61. Sy P. (G) 39. Kouao K. 38. Sane S. 15. Yegbe T. 70. Sarr B. (C) 20. Deminguet J. 5. Gbamin J. 34. Mbala N. 10. Hein G. 7. Tsitaishvili G. 11. Kvilitaia G.	38. Mvogo Y. (G) 32. Adjei N. 3. Talbi M. 25. Faye A. 77. Katseris P. 8. Cadiou N. 6. Abergel L. (C) 43. Kouassi A. 17. Makengo J. 29. Karim D. 15. Tosin A.
Substitutes
9. Abuashvili G. 97. Ballo-Toure F. 2. Colin M. 30. Diallo H. 1. Fischer J. (G) 4. Mboula U. 33. Munongo B. 21. Stambouli B. 12. Toure A.	62. Avom A. 9. Bamba M. 12. Dieng B. 2. Igor Silva 21. Kamara B. (G) 19. Monnier I. 10. Pagis P. 28. Soumano S. 95. Toure I.
Coaches
Tavenot B.	Pantaloni O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Sane S. 🟨,
15', Faye A. 🟨,
23', Tsitaishvili G. 🟨,
24', 0 - 1, Makengo J. ⚽, Kouassi A. (A),
40', Mbala N. ↓, Abuashvili G. ↑,
42', Makengo J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
62', Karim D. ↓, Pagis P. ↑,
62', Faye A. ↓, Toure I. ↑,
64', Kvilitaia G. ↓, Diallo H. ↑,
65', Kouao K. ↓, Stambouli B. ↑,
74', Tosin A. ↓, Dieng B. ↑,
74', Makengo J. ↓, Avom A. ↑,
76', Gbamin J. ↓, Munongo B. ↑,
84', 0 - 2, Dieng B. ⚽, Pagis P. (A),
90+5', Katseris P. ↓, Igor Silva ↑,
90+7', 0 - 3, Avom A. ⚽, Pagis P. (A),
90+8', 0 - 4, Cadiou N. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 9).

Metz is Relegated to Ligue 2

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Metz won 1.

Metz has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Lorient has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lorient will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Metz: Mangondo J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lorient: Le Bris T. (Knee Injury) Yongwa D. (Heel Injury)

There are questionable in Lorient: Meite B. (Inactive)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Metz won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:27. (average 1.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Metz won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:13. (average 1.9:1.6).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
02.05.26	Metz - Monaco	1:2 ✺
26.04.26	Le Havre - Metz	4:4 ✺
19.04.26	Metz - Paris FC	1:3 ✺
10.04.26	Olympique Marseille - Metz	3:1 ✺
05.04.26	Metz - Nantes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTLLT
- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
02.05.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Lorient	2:2 ✺
26.04.26	Lorient - Strasbourg	2:3 ✺
18.04.26	Lorient - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Lyon - Lorient	2:0 ✺
05.04.26	Lorient - Paris FC	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
04.01.26	Lorient - Metz	1:1
French Ligue 2
11.01.25	Lorient - Metz	0:0
21.09.24	Metz - Lorient	1:1
French Ligue 1
04.02.24	Metz - Lorient	1:2
26.11.23	Lorient - Metz	2:3
20.04.22	Lorient - Metz	1:0
12.12.21	Metz - Lorient	4:1

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Metz - Lorient: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide