Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 31

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Motor Lublin Arena (Lublin)

Referee: Arys K. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Sporty TV
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 3, Arena Sport 6, Arena Sport 8
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Motor Lublin		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	3.9	4.1	1.7	Watch
	3.6	3.9	1.85
	3.95	4.15	1.7	Watch
	4.5	4.31	1.74
	4.3	4.21	1.73	Watch
	4.2	3.9	1.7
	4.03	4.24	1.76	Watch
	3.51	3.32	1.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	4 ↑ (3.51)	4.02 ↑ (3.32)	1.75 ↓ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Motor Lublin
23.4%

Draw
23.3%

Lech Poznań
53.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.2%

26.7%

48.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.7%

26.2%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Motor Lublin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lech Poznań's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	7.1%	64.3%

Motor Lublin - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Motor will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Lech will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.25 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Tratnik G. (G) 28. Stolarski P. 39. Bartos M. 18. Najemski A. 24. Luberecki F. 6. Samper S. 30. Ndiaye M. 7. Rodrigues I. 68. Wolski B. (C) 19. van Hoeven B. 9. Czubak K.	41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 27. Monka W. 16. Milic A. 15. Gurgul M. 6. Ouma T. 43. Kozubal A. 8. Gholizadeh A. 14. Bengtsson L. 9. Ishak M. (C) 10. Walemark P.
Substitutes
77. Dadashov R. 42. Ede B. 11. Fabio Ronaldo 23. Haxha F. 10. Karasek K. 26. Krol M. 99. Kukulski P. (G) 21. Labojko J. 3. Matthys H. 2. Meyer P. 8. Scalet M. 17. Wojcik F.	1. Andreev P. (G) 20. Gumny R. 11. Hakans D. 88. Ismaheel T. 24. Jagiello F. 90. Janyszka H. 22. Murawski R. 77. Palma L. 33. Pruchniewski M. (G) 99. Rodriguez P.
Coaches
Stolarski M.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Gholizadeh A. ↓, Hakans D. ↑,
40', 0 - 1, Bengtsson L. ⚽, Pereira J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Hakans D. ↓, Palma L. ↑,
65', Walemark P. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
65', Ndiaye M. ↓, Krol M. ↑,
65', van Hoeven B. ↓, Fabio Ronaldo ↑,
77', Stolarski P. ↓, Wojcik F. ↑,
77', Czubak K. ↓, Dadashov R. ↑,
79', Bengtsson L. ↓, Ismaheel T. ↑,
79', Gurgul M. ↓, Gumny R. ↑,
86', Rodrigues I. ↓, Karasek K. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

Motor has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lech is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lech may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Lech could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Motor: Brkic I. (Ribs Injury) Plichta K. (Surgery)

There will not play in Lech: Douglas A. (Ribs Injury) Lisman K. (Knee Injury) Skrzypczak M. (Inactive) Thordarson G. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Motor won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.7:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Motor won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Lech Poznan: 47.5% Motor Lublin: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lech Poznan	9	7	1	1	21:8	13	22
16	Motor Lublin	9	1	3	5	9:15	-6	6

Last Results with these Odds

Motor Lublin - the odds 3.51 are the expected chance of winning is 25.22%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Lech Poznań - the odds 1.84 are the expected chance of winning is 48.11%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Motor Lublin
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.04.26	Widzew Łódź - Motor Lublin	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	GKS Katowice - Motor Lublin	3:2 ✺
12.04.26	Motor Lublin - Raków Częstochowa	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Radomiak Radom - Motor Lublin	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Motor Lublin - Zagłębie Lubin	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLTTW
- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.04.26	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	4:0 ✺
18.04.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Lech Poznań - GKS Katowice	3:3 ✺
04.04.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	Lech Poznań - Termalica Nieciecza	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
02.11.25	Lech Poznań - Motor Lublin	2:2
13.04.25	Motor Lublin - Lech Poznań	1:2
05.10.24	Lech Poznań - Motor Lublin	1:2

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