Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 13

Date: 21 July 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Náutico Capibaribe		Caxias

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	2.9	3.7
	2	2.88	3.8	Watch
	2.06	2.92	3.98
	1.89	3.19	4.32	Watch
	2.05	2.88	3.6
	2.04	2.86	3.87	Watch
	2.08	3.25	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.1)	2.98 ↓ (3.3)	3.8 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
45.4%

Draw
30.6%

Caxias
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

28.1%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

29.5%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Náutico Capibaribe - Caxias Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Náutico will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Caxias will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Náutico (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Náutico (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Náutico (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Náutico (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Muriel Becker (C) 2. Arnaldo 33. Carlinhos 11. Helio Borges 23. Igor Fernandes 5. Igor Pereira 10. Lucas Cardoso 8. Marco Antonio 25. Mateus Silva 9. Paulo Sergio 7. Vinicius	1. Thiago Coelho (G) 33. Alan 25. Calyson 39. Eduardo Melo 43. Guilherme Mantuan 11. Iago 4. Lucas Cunha 6. Marcelo 2. Thiago Ennes 10. Tomas Bastos (C) 23. Vinicius Guedes
Substitutes
18. Auremir 80. Bruno Mezenga 40. Joao Maistro 15. Kayon 12. Kelvin 30. Marco Antonio 17. Marcos Ytalo 20. Patrick Allan 26. Raimar 41. Samuel 1. Wellerson R. (G) 22. Wenderson	3. Alisson 44. Douglas 16. Douglas Skilo 9. Gustavo Nescau 28. Jhonatan Ribeiro 21. Kelvyn 5. Lorran 15. Ronei 32. Victor Golas (G) 19. Welder 7. Yann Rolim
Coaches
Helio dos Anjos	Junior Rocha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Vinicius Guedes 🟨,
35', Vinicius 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
53', Igor Fernandes 🟨,
60', 1 - 0, Paulo Sergio ⚽,
64', Carlinhos 🟨,
69', 🟨,
69', Eduardo Melo ↓, Welder ↑,
69', Guilherme Mantuan ↓, Yann Rolim ↑,
70', Calyson ↓, Jhonatan Ribeiro ↑,
75', Lucas Cardoso ↓, Patrick Allan ↑,
76', Iago 🟨,
76', Igor Pereira 🟨,
82', Marco Antonio ↓, Auremir ↑,
82', Paulo Sergio ↓, Bruno Mezenga ↑,
83', 2 - 0, Vinicius ⚽,
84', Tomas Bastos 🟨,
87', Iago ↓, Douglas Skilo ↑,
87', Marcelo ↓, Kelvyn ↑,
90+1', 🟨,
90+2', Helio Borges ↓, Kelvin ↑,
90+2', Igor Pereira ↓, Samuel ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

In recent matches, Náutico has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Caxias is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Náutico is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Náutico won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Including home match between the teams, Náutico won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie C
13.07.25	Figueirense - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0 ✺
05.07.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Floresta	0:0 ✺
29.06.25	Tombense - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2 ✺
16.06.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Maringá	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.06.25	Bahia - Náutico Capibaribe	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TTWWL
- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
13.07.25	Caxias - Anápolis	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	CS Alagoano - Caxias	2:3 ✺
29.06.25	Caxias - Ituano	2:1 ✺
14.06.25	Botafogo PB - Caxias	1:2 ✺
31.05.25	Caxias - Londrina	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
09.06.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Caxias	2:2

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