Match Info

Serie B - Round 12

Date: 9 June 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Eladio de Barros Carvalho (Aflitos) (Recife)

Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Premiere, SporTV


	Náutico Capibaribe		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.32	2.82	3.25
	2.3	2.9	3
	2.25	3.15	3.20
	2.41	3.09	3.37
	2.4	2.95	3.25	Watch
	2.4	2.8	3.1
	2.33	3.02	3.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↑ (2.26)	2.96 ↓ (3.02)	3.2 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
39.6%

Draw
31.3%

Fortaleza
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

30.4%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

29.2%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

The chances for Fortaleza have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Náutico Capibaribe - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Náutico will win (votes: 6 - 85.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Muriel Becker (C) 93. Reginaldo 3. Betao 25. Mateus Silva 23. Igor Fernandes 19. Leonai Souza 8. Wenderson 29. Junior Todinho 10. Dodo 7. Vinicius 72. Derek	1. Joao Ricardo (G) 75. Rodriguinho 2. Britez E. (C) 4. Luan Freitas 3. Lucas Gazal 13. Mauricio Junior 11. Vitinho 88. Lucas Sasha 29. Rodrigo 32. Luiz Fernando 9. Miritello J. B.
Substitutes
2. Arnaldo 5. Auremir 30. Felipe Cardoso 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 18. Halan 77. Juninho 14. Matheus Ribeiro 40. Ramon 31. Rosa 41. Samuel Felix 34. Wanderson 6. Yuri	18. Fuentes G. 33. Kaua Rocha 99. Kayke 10. Lucas Crispim 38. Lucca Prior 22. Mailton 77. Paulo Baya 7. Pochettino T. 8. Ronald 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton
Coaches
Helio dos Anjos	Thiago Carpini

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
36', Britez E. 🟨,
39', Luiz Fernando 🟨,
39', Leonai Souza 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Mateus Silva (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Vitinho ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
46', Miritello J. B. ↓, Lucas Crispim ↑,
52', Rodriguinho 🟥,
60', Igor Fernandes ↓, Yuri ↑,
62', Luiz Fernando ↓, Kayke ↑,
64', Leonai Souza ↓, Ramon ↑,
65', Derek ↓, Juninho ↑,
67', Kayke 🟨,
76', Mauricio Junior 🟨,
80', Mauricio Junior ↓, Fuentes G. ↑,
80', Betao ↓, Wanderson ↑,
80', Wenderson ↓, Rosa ↑,
85', Mateus Silva 🟨,
90', Lucas Sasha ↓, Ryan ↑,
90+5', Juninho 🟨,
90+6', Miritello J. B. 🟥,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 7).

Náutico is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fortaleza's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Náutico will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Náutico: Victor Andrade (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Fortaleza: Cardona T. (Muscle Injury) Matheus Rossetto (Inactive)

There are questionable in Náutico: Juninho (Injury)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Muscle Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:12. (average 0.8:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Náutico won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 1:2.7).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Fortaleza: 13.3% Nautico: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42

Last Results with these Odds

Fortaleza - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 29.09%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
30.05.26	Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
22.05.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
16.05.26	Operário Ferroviario - Náutico Capibaribe	2:6 ✺
10.05.26	Náutico Capibaribe - América Mineiro	4:0 ✺
02.05.26	Botafogo SP - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LWWWT
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
06.06.26	Vitória Salvador - Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
02.06.26	Fortaleza - Vitória Salvador	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
30.05.26	Athletic Club - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
27.05.26	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
23.05.26	Fortaleza - Londrina	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.02.23	Fortaleza - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1
26.03.22	Fortaleza - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0
12.02.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Fortaleza	2:2
14.03.20	Náutico Capibaribe - Fortaleza	0:3
15.01.19	Náutico Capibaribe - Fortaleza	1:3

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