Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 8

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday

Location: Rat Verlegh Stadion (Breda)

Referee: van der Laan J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra


	NAC Breda		Groningen

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.3	2.63	Watch
	2.6	3.3	2.7
	2.65	3.25	2.72
	2.67	3.36	2.77
	10.85	4.52	1.33	Watch
	2.84	3.42	2.59	Watch
	2.65	3.3	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.84 ↑ (2.7)	3.49 ↓ (3.6)	2.49 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NAC Breda
27.5%

Draw
30.2%

Groningen
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.8%

26.1%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

26.8%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NAC Breda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that NAC Breda's form might have worsened.

Groningen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for NAC Breda, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Groningen than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.2%	17.4%	17.4%

NAC Breda - Groningen Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Breda will win (votes: 15 - 65.2%). Groningen will win (votes: 4 - 17.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 17.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Breda: 45.7% – 84.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Groningen (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Breda (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): NAC Breda will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Breda (votes: 6 - 75%). Groningen (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Bielica D. (G) 2. Lucassen B. 12. Greiml L. 22. Hillen R. 4. Kemper B. (C) 20. Jensen F. 90. Holtby L. 32. Talvitie J. 10. Nassoh M. 14. Sowah K. 17. van Hooijdonk S.	1. Vaessen E. (G) 16. Mercera T. 3. Blokzijl T. 4. Janse D. 43. Peersman M. 17. van der Werff D. 8. de Jonge T. 6. Resink S. (C) 14. Schreuders J. 10. Taha Y. 26. van Bergen T.
Substitutes
7. Brym C. 21. Candelaria J. 55. Ghalidi B. 5. Kongolo T. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 8. Leemans C. 15. Mahmutovic E. 11. Paula R. 26. Reulen P. 6. Staring C. 25. Valerius C.	22. Bouland S. 44. Dillema J. 11. Emeran N. 7. Hernes T. 21. Jurjus H. (G) 48. Kelder R. 27. Mendes R. 2. Prins W. 20. Seuntjens M. 13. Stubljar L. (G) 9. Willumsson B. 19. Zawada O.
Coaches
Hoefkens C.	Lukkien D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', Hillen R. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, de Jonge T. ⚽,
45+1', Janse D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Lucassen B. ↓, Valerius C. ↑,
54', 0 - 2, van Bergen T. ⚽, Vaessen E. (A),
58', Jensen F. ↓, Brym C. ↑,
58', Talvitie J. ↓, Paula R. ↑,
58', Holtby L. ↓, Leemans C. ↑,
65', Greiml L. 🟨,
71', Sowah K. 🟨,
73', Mercera T. ↓, Prins W. ↑,
73', van der Werff D. ↓, Willumsson B. ↑,
75', van Hooijdonk S. ↓, Reulen P. ↑,
84', van Bergen T. ↓, Seuntjens M. ↑,
90', Taha Y. ↓, Emeran N. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 2, Nassoh M. ⚽, Brym C. (A),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 15 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Breda won 1.

Breda is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Groningen has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Breda: Balard M. (Red Card) Soumano M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Groningen: Emeran N. (Muscle Injury) Holder Y. (Injury) Land T. (Red Card) Willumsson B. (Injury) Zawada O. (Injury)

There are questionable in Groningen: Rente M. (Injury) Schreuders J. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Breda won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 23:28. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Breda won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.7:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
27.09.25	Ajax - NAC Breda	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	NAC Breda - Heracles Almelo	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Twente - NAC Breda	2:2 ✺
31.08.25	NAC Breda - AZ Alkmaar	0:1 ✺
24.08.25	NEC Nijmegen - NAC Breda	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWTLL
- FC Groningen
Dutch Eredivisie
28.09.25	Groningen - Feyenoord	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Groningen - Telstar	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Utrecht - Groningen	0:1 ✺
29.08.25	Groningen - Heracles Almelo	4:0 ✺
23.08.25	PSV Eindhoven - Groningen	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
29.03.25	NAC Breda - Groningen	1:1
09.08.24	Groningen - NAC Breda	4:1
Dutch Eerste Divisie
07.04.24	Groningen - NAC Breda	1:1
06.10.23	NAC Breda - Groningen	3:2
Dutch Eredivisie
23.02.19	NAC Breda - Groningen	0:0
02.12.18	Groningen - NAC Breda	5:2
23.02.18	Groningen - NAC Breda	1:1

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