Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 21

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: Rat Verlegh Stadion (Breda)

Referee: Kooij J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2, ESPN Extra


	NAC Breda		Twente

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.6	3.7	1.98
	3.45	3.45	2.12
	3.54	3.46	2.16
	3.45	3.45	2.11	Watch
	3.5	3.5	1.83
	3.54	3.5	2.11	Watch
	3.4	3.4	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↓ (4.2)	3.48 ↓ (3.5)	2.06 ↑ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NAC Breda
27.1%

Draw
27.1%

Twente
45.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.4%

26.8%

50.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.8%

26.1%

52.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Twente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with NAC Breda that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Twente than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Twente could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.5%	13.2%	76.3%

NAC Breda - Twente Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Breda will win (votes: 4 - 10.5%). Twente will win (votes: 29 - 76.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 13.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Twente: 62.8% – 89.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Breda (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Twente (votes: 9 - 69.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 50%) .

AH -0.25 - Twente (1.83) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Twente (1.29) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Breda (2.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Breda (votes: 5 - 25%). Twente (votes: 15 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Bielica D. (G) 25. Valerius C. 12. Greiml L. 3. Odoi D. 22. Hillen R. 4. Kemper B. (C) 16. Balard M. 90. Holtby L. 14. Sowah K. 7. Brym C. 9. Soumano M.	1. Unnerstall L. (G) 28. van Rooij B. 23. Lemkin S. 43. Nijstad R. 39. Rots M. 6. Zerrouki R. 20. van den Belt T. 11. Rots D. 32. Verschueren A. 27. Orjasaeter S. 9. van Wolfswinkel R. (C)
Substitutes
24. Ayew A. 21. Candelaria J. 55. Ghalidi B. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 8. Leemans C. 2. Lucassen B. 15. Mahmutovic E. 11. Paula R. 26. Reulen P. 6. Staring C. 32. Talvitie J.	38. Bruns M. 14. Hlynsson K. 21. Karssies S. (G) 4. Kjolo M. 10. Lammers S. 12. Peixoto G. 7. Pjaca M. 22. Tyton P. (G) 42. Weidmann D.
Coaches
Hoefkens C.	van den Brom J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Rots D. 🟨,
10', Holtby L. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Rots M. ⚽, Rots D. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Hillen R. ↓, Talvitie J. ↑,
51', 0 - 2, van Wolfswinkel R. ⚽, Orjasaeter S. (A),
53', Kemper B. ↓, Candelaria J. ↑,
57', Zerrouki R. ↓, Kjolo M. ↑,
61', 1 - 2, Brym C. ⚽, Talvitie J. (A),
67', Holtby L. ↓, Ayew A. ↑,
67', Valerius C. ↓, Lucassen B. ↑,
68', Verschueren A. ↓, Hlynsson K. ↑,
69', Orjasaeter S. ↓, Pjaca M. ↑,
75', Hoefkens C. 🟨,
77', Rots D. ↓, Lammers S. ↑,
78', van den Belt T. ↓, Bruns M. ↑,
83', Balard M. ↓, Leemans C. ↑,
87', 2 - 2, Soumano M. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Breda won 1.

Breda is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Twente is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Twente might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Breda: Jensen F. (Injury) Paula R. (Inactive)

There will not play in Twente: Booth T. (Injury) Hilgers M. (Knee Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Breda won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:20. (average 1.1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Breda won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.8:1.4).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

NAC Breda: 15.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Twente	8	5	2	1	16:8	8	17

Last Results with these Odds

Twente - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 50.79%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
24.01.26	PSV Eindhoven - NAC Breda	2:2 ✺
17.01.26	NAC Breda - NEC Nijmegen	3:4 ✺
10.01.26	Groningen - NAC Breda	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	NAC Breda - Telstar	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	NAC Breda - Utrecht	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.7 TLTLT
- FC Twente
Dutch Eredivisie
24.01.26	Twente - Excelsior	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Heracles Almelo - Twente	0:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
13.01.26	Utrecht - Twente	1:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
10.01.26	Twente - Zwolle	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Feyenoord - Twente	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
13.09.25	Twente - NAC Breda	2:2
19.01.25	NAC Breda - Twente	2:1
29.09.24	Twente - NAC Breda	1:0
06.05.18	Twente - NAC Breda	1:1
12.12.17	NAC Breda - Twente	1:2
28.02.15	Twente - NAC Breda	1:1
24.08.14	NAC Breda - Twente	1:1

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