Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 19

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Rat Verlegh Stadion (Breda)

Referee: Blank E. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	U-NEXT
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1, ESPN Extra


	NAC Breda		NEC Nijmegen

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.4	2.75	Watch
	2.52	3.55	2.68
	2.48	3.65	2.67	Watch
	2.4	3.4	2.6
	2.57	3.54	2.7	Watch
	2.5	3.5	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.96)	3.51 ↓ (3.58)	2.67 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

NAC Breda
37.8%

Draw
26.9%

NEC Nijmegen
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

26.1%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

25.2%

43.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

NAC Breda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in NAC Breda's performance.

NEC Nijmegen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and NEC Nijmegen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for NAC Breda than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with NAC Breda that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for NEC Nijmegen than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that NEC Nijmegen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	14.3%	64.3%

NAC Breda - NEC Nijmegen Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Breda will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Nijmegen will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nijmegen: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nijmegen (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Nijmegen (4.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Nijmegen (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Bielica D. (G) 12. Greiml L. 3. Odoi D. 22. Hillen R. 7. Brym C. 16. Balard M. 14. Sowah K. 4. Kemper B. (C) 90. Holtby L. 17. van Hooijdonk S. 9. Soumano M.	1. Crettaz G. (G) 14. Dasa E. 3. Sandler P. 4. Kaplan A. 25. Ouaissa S. 23. Sano K. 6. Nejasmic D. 11. Onal B. 10. Chery T. (C) 18. Ogawa K. 20. Lebreton N.
Substitutes
24. Ayew A. 21. Candelaria J. 55. Ghalidi B. 1. Kortsmit R. (G) 31. Lamprou K. (G) 8. Leemans C. 2. Lucassen B. 15. Mahmutovic E. 10. Nassoh M. 11. Paula R. 6. Staring C. 32. Talvitie J.	22. Cillessen J. (G) 35. de Laat S. 24. Fonville D. 21. Gonzalez R. 31. Janse R. (G) 7. Misidjan V. 5. Ouwejan T. 2. Pereira B. 71. Proper D. 15. Willems J.
Coaches
Hoefkens C.	Schreuder D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
8', Brym C. 🟨,
10', 0 - 1, Dasa E. ⚽,
17', 0 - 2, Ouaissa S. ⚽, Ogawa K. (A),
30', Nejasmic D. ↓, Proper D. ↑,
38', 1 - 2, Soumano M. ⚽, Hillen R. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
55', 2 - 2, Soumano M. ⚽, Brym C. (A),
63', Ouaissa S. ↓, Pereira B. ↑,
63', Ogawa K. ↓, Fonville D. ↑,
63', Greiml L. ↓, Lucassen B. ↑,
65', Balard M. 🟨,
69', 2 - 3, Proper D. ⚽, Chery T. (A),
71', van Hooijdonk S. ↓, Ayew A. ↑,
71', Soumano M. ↓, Talvitie J. ↑,
81', 3 - 3, Kemper B. ⚽, Holtby L. (A),
86', Onal B. ↓, Misidjan V. ↑,
87', Proper D. 🟨,
89', Holtby L. ↓, Leemans C. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 4, Sano K. ⚽, Lebreton N. (A),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Eredivisie (Relegation) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Breda won 2.

Breda has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Nijmegen is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Breda may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Breda: Greiml L. (Injury) Jensen F. (Injury) Valerius C. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Nijmegen: El Kachati Y. (Wrist Injury) Entius F. (Knee Injury) Nuytinck B. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Breda: Kongolo T. (Health problems)

There are questionable in Nijmegen: Ouwejan T. (Inactive)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Breda won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:15. (average 1.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Breda won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 1:0.6).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

NAC Breda: 15.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Nijmegen	8	2	3	3	13:14	-1	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NAC Breda
Dutch Eredivisie
10.01.26	Groningen - NAC Breda	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	NAC Breda - Telstar	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	NAC Breda - Utrecht	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Sparta Rotterdam - NAC Breda	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Excelsior - NAC Breda	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TLTLL
- NEC Nijmegen
Dutch Eredivisie
20.12.25	NEC Nijmegen - Ajax	2:2 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
16.12.25	Amsterdamsche FC - NEC Nijmegen	1:3 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
13.12.25	Telstar - NEC Nijmegen	2:2 ✺
07.12.25	Volendam - NEC Nijmegen	2:3 ✺
29.11.25	NEC Nijmegen - Sparta Rotterdam	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
24.08.25	NEC Nijmegen - NAC Breda	3:0
14.05.25	NEC Nijmegen - NAC Breda	3:0
05.10.24	NAC Breda - NEC Nijmegen	1:0
23.05.21	NAC Breda - NEC Nijmegen	1:2
Dutch Eerste Divisie
03.05.21	NEC Nijmegen - NAC Breda	0:2
30.10.20	NAC Breda - NEC Nijmegen	0:1
28.02.20	NEC Nijmegen - NAC Breda	1:1

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