Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 6 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte (Potosí)

Referee: Herrera Y. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
Usa	beIN Connect, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	DSports 2


	Nacional Potosí		Guaraní Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.36	5.25	7.5	Watch
	1.43	4.6	6.75
	1.36	4.75	8	Watch
	1.37	4.95	7.95
	1.37	4.98	8.34	Watch
	1.4	4.4	7	Watch
	1.34	5.1	8.45	Watch
	1.36	4.75	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.58)	4.85 ↑ (4.12)	7.75 ↑ (5.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Potosí
68.5%

Draw
19.4%

Guaraní Asuncion
12.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.2%

22.7%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

22.3%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Potosí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional Potosí's performance.

Guaraní Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Guaraní Asuncion might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Potosí than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional Potosí that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guaraní Asuncion could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.4%	9.1%	54.5%

Nacional Potosí - Guaraní Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Nacional Potosí will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Guaraní will win (votes: 5 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guaraní: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Nacional Potosí (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Guaraní (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mustafa S. (G) 21. Baldomar O. 26. Echeverria S. 33. Demiquel L. 16. Torrico A. 11. Rojas J. 22. Hoyos D. 8. Pavia L. 24. Diellos D. 19. Abrego V. 20. Prost M.	12. Rodriguez M. (G) 4. Ibarrola W. 5. Lopez M. 14. Vargas G. 37. Perez D. 2. Benitez Cabrera A. J. 7. Manzur A. 36. Martinez L. 32. Cantero A. 10. Mendieta W. 40. Fernandez F. (C)
Substitutes
3. Acuna M. 29. Alvarez W. 18. Azogue P. 23. Galindo P. (G) 27. Garcia A. 14. Guerra J. 17. Guerra S. 10. Preciado C. 4. Roca C. 7. Torres S.	11. Barrientos N. 13. Benitez J. 16. Cespedes V. 26. Fernandez D. 30. Gimenez M. (G) 20. Maidana A. 24. Patino Martinez J. 35. Pereira A. 21. Pinatares B. 27. Roman Torales F. J. 19. Romero A. 17. Torales Richard
Coaches
Vigevani C.	Arce F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', Martinez L. ↓, Pinatares B. ↑,
37', 1 - 0, Hoyos D. ⚽,
45+1', Perez D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Mendieta W. ↓, Fernandez D. ↑,
46', Fernandez F. ↓, Pereira A. ↑,
57', Prost M. ↓, Guerra S. ↑,
58', Benitez Cabrera A. J. 🟨,
61', 2 - 0, Diellos D. ⚽, Abrego V. (A),
63', 2 - 1, Fernandez D. ⚽, Manzur A. (A),
64', Benitez Cabrera A. J. ↓, Barrientos N. ↑,
69', Rojas J. ↓, Preciado C. ↑,
75', Cantero A. ↓, Cespedes V. ↑,
80', Pavia L. ↓, Torres S. ↑,
80', Diellos D. ↓, Alvarez W. ↑,
81', Hoyos D. ↓, Azogue P. ↑,
86', Azogue P. 🟨,
88', 2 - 2, Fernandez D. (Pen),

Preview

Nacional Potosí is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Guaraní is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Nacional Potosí is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nacional Potosí won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Potosí
Bolivian Copa Pacena
30.04.25	Blooming - Nacional Potosí	2:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
27.04.25	Nacional Potosí - Jorge Wilstermann	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	Boston River - Nacional Potosí	2:1 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
18.04.25	San Antonio Bulo Bulo - Nacional Potosí	2:2 ✺
14.04.25	Nacional Potosí - Guabirá	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLLTW
- Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
02.05.25	Deportivo Recoleta - Guaraní Asuncion	0:3 ✺
26.04.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Independiente	2:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
19.04.25	Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:3 ✺
16.04.25	Guaraní Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.9 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
10.04.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Potosí	2:0

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