Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 2

Date: 3 October 2023, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	CMore, CMore Sport
France	beIN Sports
Italy	Sky Sport, Sky Sport Uno
Romania	Prima Sport 1
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	CMore Fotboll, TV4
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Napoli		Real Madrid

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.6	2.55
	2.65	3.5	2.55
	2.65	3.7	2.58	Watch
	2.68	3.6	2.45
	2.72	3.69	2.61
	2.62	3.6	2.5
	2.81	3.8	2.61
	2.8	3.7	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↑ (2.45)	3.65 ↑ (3.57)	2.55 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 0.2%, offered by

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Network on TV: TUDN, Univision

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Current Win Probability

Napoli
35.8%

Draw
26.4%

Real Madrid
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

26.5%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

27.9%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19.2%	23.3%	57.5%

Napoli - Real Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 73 users predict this event. Napoli will win (votes: 14 - 19.2%). Real will win (votes: 42 - 57.5%). It will Tie (votes: 17 - 23.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 46.2% – 68.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Meret A. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 55. Ostigard L. 3. Natan 17. Olivera M. 99. Anguissa F. 68. Lobotka S. 20. Zielinski P. 21. Politano M. 9. Osimhen V. 77. Kvaratskhelia K.	25. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 2. Carvajal D. 6. Fernandez N. (C) 22. Rudiger A. 12. Camavinga E. 15. Valverde F. 18. Tchouameni A. 8. Kroos T. 5. Bellingham J. 11. Rodrygo 7. Vinicius Junior
Substitutes
24. Cajuste J. 14. Contini N. (G) 50. D'Avino L. 7. Elmas E. 70. Gaetano G. 16. Idasiak H. (G) 29. Lindstrom J. 81. Raspadori G. 6. Rui M. 18. Simeone G. 59. Zanoli A. 23. Zerbin A.	31. Canizares L. (G) 34. Carrillo A. 19. Ceballos D. 21. Diaz B. 20. Garcia F. 14. Joselu 17. Lucas 13. Lunin A. (G) 23. Mendy F. 10. Modric L.
Coaches
Garcia R.	Ancelotti C.

Preview

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Recently Napoli have a series of guest games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Napoli: Gollini P. (Hand Injury) Juan Jesus (Muscle Injury) Rrahmani A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Muscle Injury) Courtois T. (Knee Injury) Guler A. (Muscle Injury) Militao E. (Knee Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Napoli won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Napoli won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
30.09.23	Lecce - Napoli	0:4 ✺
27.09.23	Napoli - Udinese	4:1 ✺
24.09.23	Bologna - Napoli	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.09.23	Braga - Napoli	1:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
16.09.23	Genoa - Napoli	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWTWT
- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
30.09.23	Girona - Real Madrid	0:3 ✺
27.09.23	Real Madrid - Las Palmas	2:0 ✺
24.09.23	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
20.09.23	Real Madrid - Union Berlin	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
17.09.23	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
07.03.17	Napoli - Real Madrid	1:3
15.02.17	Real Madrid - Napoli	3:1

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