Match Info

Serie A - Round 9

Date: 28 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce)

Referee: Collu G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Lecce		Napoli

	1	X	2
	6	3.6	1.62	Watch
	5.9	3.7	1.65	Watch
	7.13	4.47	1.5
	6.95	4.21	1.49	Watch
	6.23	3.87	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.44 ↓ (6.9)	3.97 ↓ (4.34)	1.59 ↑ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
15%

Draw
24.3%

Napoli
60.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

13.9%

22.1%

64%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.4%

21.4%

66.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Napoli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.9%	9.8%	85.2%

Lecce - Napoli Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Lecce (1.69) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - draw (1.12) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Napoli will win (50 of 58 users predict this - 86.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.34% – 95.08%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Napoli will win (21 of 23 users predict this - 91.3%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Lecce (votes: 3 - 11.5%). Napoli (votes: 21 - 80.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Falcone W. (C) 17. Veiga D. 4. Gaspar K. 44. Tiago Gabriel 25. Gallo A. 29. Coulibaly L. 20. Ramadani Y. 10. Berisha M. 50. Pierotti S. 22. Camarda F. 19. Banda L.	32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 4. Buongiorno A. 5. Juan Jesus 17. Olivera M. 99. Anguissa F. 6. Gilmour B. 20. Elmas E. 21. Politano M. 27. Lucca L. 70. Lang N.
Substitutes
1. Fruchtl C. (G) 14. Helgason T. J. 77. Kaba M. 21. Kouassi C. 80. Kovac N. 93. Maleh Y. 3. Ndaba C. 11. Ndri K. 75. Pierret B. 6. Sala A. 32. Samooja J. (G) 5. Siebert J. 9. Stulic N. 7. Tete Morente	69. Ambrosino G. 31. Beukema S. 14. Contini N. (G) 7. David Neres 25. Ferrante M. (G) 3. Gutierrez M. 19. Hojlund R. 35. Marianucci L. 30. Mazzocchi P. 8. McTominay S. 13. Rrahmani A. 37. Spinazzola L. 26. Vergara A.
Coaches
Di Francesco E.	Conte A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Olivera M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Pierotti S. ↓, Tete Morente ↑,
48', Lang N. ↓, David Neres ↑,
55', Camarda F. (Pen),
61', Olivera M. ↓, Spinazzola L. ↑,
61', Politano M. ↓, McTominay S. ↑,
61', Lucca L. ↓, Hojlund R. ↑,
62', Ramadani Y. 🟨,
65', Banda L. ↓, Ndri K. ↑,
69', 0 - 1, Anguissa F. ⚽, David Neres (A),
70', Camarda F. ↓, Stulic N. ↑,
77', Berisha M. ↓, Maleh Y. ↑,
77', Coulibaly L. ↓, Pierret B. ↑,
85', Elmas E. ↓, Gutierrez M. ↑,
88', Ndri K. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Napoli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Napoli is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Lecce: Jean G. (Knee Injury) Marchwinski F. (Knee Injury) Perez M. (Illness) Rafia H. (Inactive)

There will not play in Napoli: De Bruyne K. (Muscle Injury) Lobotka S. (Muscle Injury) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury) Meret A. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Lecce: Sottil R. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Napoli: Contini N. (Hand Injury) Hojlund R. (Thigh Injury) Rrahmani A. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:17. (average 0.6:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Lecce won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 2:13. (average 0.3:2.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Napoli - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 63.98%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
25.10.25	Udinese - Lecce	3:2 ✺
18.10.25	Lecce - Sassuolo	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Parma - Lecce	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	Lecce - Bologna	2:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
23.09.25	Milan - Lecce	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 LTWTL
- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
25.10.25	Napoli - Inter Milan	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	PSV Eindhoven - Napoli	6:2 ✺
Italian Serie A
18.10.25	Torino - Napoli	1:0 ✺
05.10.25	Napoli - Genoa	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Napoli - Sporting Lisbon	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
03.05.25	Lecce - Napoli	0:1
26.10.24	Napoli - Lecce	1:0
26.05.24	Napoli - Lecce	0:0
30.09.23	Lecce - Napoli	0:4
07.04.23	Lecce - Napoli	1:2
31.08.22	Napoli - Lecce	1:1
09.02.20	Napoli - Lecce	2:3

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