Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 20 September 2023, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Eskas E. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	BTV Action
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	CMore, CMore Sport
France	beIN Sports
Hungary	Sport 1
Italy	Sky Sport Arena, Sky Sport
Portugal	Eleven Sports 2
Romania	Prima Sport 1
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Real Madrid		Union Berlin

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.75	7.5
	1.45	4.7	7.4	Watch
	1.43	4.5	7
	1.45	4.88	7.33
	1.33	4.4	7
	1.44	4.7	6.95
	1.46	4.8	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.35)	4.68 ↓ (4.97)	7.2 ↓ (8.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Champions League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: UNIMAS (KFTU-Tucson (Sierra Vista), AZ)

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
66.6%

Draw
20.3%

Union Berlin
13.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.4%

18.9%

11.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.4%

18.6%

11.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Union Berlin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.5%	2.4%	7.1%

Real Madrid - Union Berlin Predictions

Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (76 of 84 users predict this - 90.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.2% – 96.76%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 17. Lucas 22. Rudiger A. 6. Fernandez N. (C) 4. Alaba D. 10. Modric L. 18. Tchouameni A. 12. Camavinga E. 5. Bellingham J. 11. Rodrygo 14. Joselu	1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 23. Bonucci L. 4. Leite D. 18. Juranovic J. 29. Tousart L. 33. Kral A. 20. Laidouni A. 6. Gosens R. 27. Becker S. (C) 17. Behrens K.
Substitutes
31. Canizares L. (G) 19. Ceballos D. 21. Diaz B. 20. Garcia F. 33. Garcia G. 8. Kroos T. 13. Lunin A. (G) 23. Mendy F. 36. Tobias V. 15. Valverde F.	7. Aaronson B. 11. Fofana D. D. 3. Jaeckel P. 36. Kemlein A. 26. Roussillon J. 37. Schwolow A. (G) 39. Stein Y. (G) 28. Trimmel C. 10. Volland K.
Coaches
Ancelotti C.	Fischer U.

Preview

Real in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Union Berlin is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Real could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Real is certain favorite.

There will not play in Real: Carvajal D. (Muscle Injury) Courtois T. (Knee Injury) Guler A. (Knee Injury) Militao E. (Knee Injury) Vinicius Junior (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Union Berlin: Dehl L. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Haberer J. (Red Card) Khedira R. (Calf Injury) Schafer A. (Foot Injury)

Our prediction for today's Real to win the game is with odds 1.37.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
17.09.23	Real Madrid - Real Sociedad	2:1 ✺
02.09.23	Real Madrid - Getafe	2:1 ✺
25.08.23	Celta de Vigo - Real Madrid	0:1 ✺
19.08.23	Almería - Real Madrid	1:3 ✺
12.08.23	Athletic Bilbao - Real Madrid	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWWW
- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
16.09.23	Wolfsburg - Union Berlin	2:1 ✺
03.09.23	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	0:3 ✺
26.08.23	Darmstadt - Union Berlin	1:4 ✺
20.08.23	Union Berlin - Mainz	4:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
13.08.23	Astoria Walldorf - Union Berlin	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLWWW

Upcoming Matches