Match Info

A-League - Round 24

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: McDonald Jones Stadium (Newcastle)

Referee: Kersey A. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	SPOTV 2 Asia
Australia	10 Drama, Channel 10, Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV 2, Vidio
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mongolia	SPOTV 2
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 4
Philippines	SPOTV 2
Singapore	SPOTV 2
Thailand	SPOTV 2
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, HBO Max, TNT Sports 3
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	SPOTV 2


	Newcastle Jets		Adelaide United

	1	X	2
	2.1	4	2.82	Watch
	2.18	3.95	2.82	Watch
	2.23	4.2	2.9
	2.14	4.23	2.92	Watch
	2.1	3.75	2.8
	2.13	4.2	3.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (1.75)	4.06 ↑ (4.05)	2.89 ↓ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle Jets
44%

Draw
23.3%

Adelaide United
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.9%

22.8%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

23.5%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle Jets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Newcastle Jets's form might have worsened.

Adelaide United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Adelaide United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Jets than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Newcastle Jets, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adelaide United than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Adelaide United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.8%	11.1%	61.1%

Newcastle Jets - Adelaide United Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). Adelaide will win (votes: 11 - 61.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Adelaide: 38.6% – 83.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Adelaide United will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Delianov J. (G) 22. Bertolissio J. 17. Grozos K. (C) 33. Natta M. 23. Wilmering D. 8. Bayliss L. 14. Burgess M. 43. Bertoncello X. 28. Dobson W. 13. Taylor C. 11. Gibson B.	22. Smits J. (G) 14. Barnett J. 3. Vriends B. (C) 4. Kikianis P. 7. Kitto R. 55. Alagich E. 19. Dukuly Y. 44. White R. 23. Duzel L. 12. Yull J. 9. Jovanovic L.
Substitutes
7. Adams E. 10. Clough Z. 42. Cooper M. 18. Mizunuma K. 20. Nassiep A. (G) 9. Rose L. 41. Scicluna L.	87. Anselmo 42. Ayoubi A. 35. Burkitt B. 10. Muniz J. 52. Phillis S. 62. Talladira F. 13. Vartuli M. (G)
Coaches
Milligan M.	Andrioli A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Dobson W. ↓, Clough Z. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', White R. 🟨,
53', Gibson B. ↓, Rose L. ↑,
63', Jovanovic L. ↓, Anselmo ↑,
63', Dukuly Y. ↓, Burkitt B. ↑,
68', Bertoncello X. ↓, Mizunuma K. ↑,
68', Taylor C. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
73', 0 - 1, White R. ⚽, Anselmo (A),
90+1', Natta M. ↓, Scicluna L. ↑,
90+2', Alagich E. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 1, Wilmering D. ⚽,
90+6', Yull J. ↓, Muniz J. ↑,
90+7', Grozos K. 🟨,
90+8', Kitto R. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Newcastle: Badolato A. (Knee Injury) Baylis J. (Inactive) Bracco C. (Knee Injury) Fryer O. (Knee Injury) James N. (Inactive) Nkomo R. (Inactive) Taylor C. (Hamstring Injury) Van Dorssen B. (Inactive)

There will not play in Adelaide: Goodwin C. (Groin Injury) Najdovski J. (Knee Injury) Pierias D. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Aquilina T. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 22:33. (average 1.1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 8:19. (average 0.8:1.9).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Newcastle Jets: 13.59%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Adelaide United	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Newcastle Jets	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle Jets
Australian A-League
02.04.26	Macarthur FC - Newcastle Jets	3:2 ✺
22.03.26	Sydney - Newcastle Jets	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Newcastle Jets - Auckland FC	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Newcastle Jets - Western Sydney Wanderers	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Central Coast Mariners - Newcastle Jets	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWLWT
- Adelaide United
Australian A-League
03.04.26	Adelaide United - Auckland FC	1:1 ✺
20.03.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Adelaide United	2:4 ✺
14.03.26	Central Coast Mariners - Adelaide United	1:1 ✺
06.03.26	Adelaide United - Wellington Phoenix	1:1 ✺
27.02.26	Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 TWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
08.02.26	Adelaide United - Newcastle Jets	2:3
Australian Cup
30.07.25	Newcastle Jets - Adelaide United	2:1
Australian A-League
15.02.25	Adelaide United - Newcastle Jets	1:2
07.12.24	Newcastle Jets - Adelaide United	0:1
15.03.24	Newcastle Jets - Adelaide United	0:1
22.12.23	Adelaide United - Newcastle Jets	3:1
11.03.23	Newcastle Jets - Adelaide United	2:4

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