Match Info

Premier League - Round 8

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Amex Stadium (Brighton)

Referee: Pawson C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Brighton & Hove Albion		Newcastle United

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.4	2.6
	2.68	3.5	2.62
	2.96	3.5	2.48
	1.57	3.90	5.93	Watch
	2.68	3.66	2.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (2.51)	3.59 ↑ (3.57)	3.27 ↑ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brighton & Hove Albion
40.6%

Draw
28.3%

Newcastle United
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

26.7%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

27.5%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brighton & Hove Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brighton & Hove Albion than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	48.9%	28.9%

Brighton & Hove Albion - Newcastle United Predictions

Users Predictions: 44 users predict this event. Brighton & Hove will win (votes: 10 - 22.7%). Newcastle will win (votes: 13 - 29.5%). It will Tie (votes: 21 - 47.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 32.9% – 62.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Brighton & Hove (votes: 2 - 25%). Newcastle (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Brighton & Hove (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Brighton & Hove (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Newcastle (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Verbruggen B. (G) 27. Wieffer M. 5. Dunk L. (C) 6. van Hecke J. P. 24. Kadioglu F. 17. Baleba C. 26. Ayari Y. 11. Minteh Y. 10. Rutter G. 25. Gomez D. 18. Welbeck D.	1. Pope N. (G) 2. Trippier K. 12. Thiaw M. 4. Botman S. 33. Burn D. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 8. Tonali S. 7. Joelinton 20. Elanga A. 27. Woltemade N. 10. Gordon A.
Substitutes
21. Boscagli O. 42. Coppola D. 29. De Cuyper M. 19. Kostoulas C. 20. Milner J. 58. Oriola N. 23. Steele J. (G) 9. Tzimas S. 14. Watson T.	11. Barnes H. 17. Krafth E. 67. Miley L. 23. Murphy J. 18. Osula W. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 5. Schar F. 28. Willock J.
Coaches
Hurzeler F.	Howe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', Gomez D. ↓, De Cuyper M. ↑,
41', 1 - 0, Welbeck D. ⚽, Rutter G. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Joelinton ↓, Miley L. ↑,
46', Elanga A. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
70', Gordon A. ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
70', Tonali S. ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
71', Rutter G. ↓, Tzimas S. ↑,
71', Baleba C. ↓, Milner J. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Woltemade N. ⚽, Miley L. (A),
84', 2 - 1, Welbeck D. ⚽,
86', Bruno Guimaraes ↓, Osula W. ↑,
90', Minteh Y. ↓, Coppola D. ↑,
90', Welbeck D. ↓, Kostoulas C. ↑,
90+7', Burn D. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brighton & Hove won 3.

Brighton & Hove has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Newcastle is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Brighton & Hove has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Brighton & Hove: Gruda B. (Knee Injury) Hinshelwood J. (Ankle Injury) March S. (Knee Injury) Webster A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Newcastle: Hall L. (Thigh Injury) Livramento V. (Knee Injury) Wissa Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Brighton & Hove: Gomez D. (Thigh Injury) Veltman J. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Miley L. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Brighton & Hove won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:18. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Brighton & Hove won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brighton & Hove Albion
English Premier League
05.10.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:3 ✺
English League Cup
23.09.25	Barnsley - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:6 ✺
English Premier League
20.09.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Tottenham Hotspur	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Bournemouth - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TWWTL
- Newcastle United
English Premier League
05.10.25	Newcastle United - Nottingham Forest	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Saint-Gilloise - Newcastle United	0:4 ✺
English Premier League
28.09.25	Newcastle United - Arsenal	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
24.09.25	Newcastle United - Bradford City	4:1 ✺
English Premier League
21.09.25	Bournemouth - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
04.05.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Newcastle United	1:1
English FA Cup
02.03.25	Newcastle United - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:2 ET
English Premier League
19.10.24	Newcastle United - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:1
11.05.24	Newcastle United - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:1
02.09.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - Newcastle United	3:1
Club Friendly
28.07.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - Newcastle United	1:2
English Premier League
18.05.23	Newcastle United - Brighton & Hove Albion	4:1

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