Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 3

Date: 25 October 2023, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Ring
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports
Hungary	Sport 1
Italy	Sky Sport Arena, Sky Sport
Portugal	Eleven Sports 3
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 2
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	CMore Fotboll, TV4
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Newcastle United		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.5	5.25
	1.58	4.33	5.25
	1.55	4.55	5.8	Watch
	1.58	4.5	5.69
	1.58	4.49	5.69
	1.53	4.4	5.5
	1.62	4.7	5.85
	1.6	4.5	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.84)	4.5 ↑ (3.82)	5.53 ↑ (4.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 0.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
61.2%

Draw
21.4%

Borussia Dortmund
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

24.9%

23.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

24.3%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newcastle United's performance.

Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Borussia Dortmund might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newcastle United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Borussia Dortmund could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.3%	8.6%	7.1%

Newcastle United - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Users Predictions: Newcastle United will win (118 of 140 users predict this - 84.29%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.26% – 90.32%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pope N. (G) 2. Trippier K. 5. Schar F. 6. Lascelles J. (C) 33. Burn D. 36. Longstaff S. 39. Guimaraes B. 7. Joelinton 24. Almiron M. 14. Isak A. 10. Gordon A.	1. Kobel G. (G) 17. Wolf M. 15. Hummels M. 4. Schlotterbeck N. 5. Bensebaini R. 20. Sabitzer M. 23. Can E. (C) 8. Nmecha F. 11. Reus M. 14. Fullkrug N. 21. Malen D.
Substitutes
1. Dubravka M. (G) 3. Dummett P. 20. Hall L. 18. Karius L. (G) 21. Livramento V. 23. Murphy J. 13. Targett M. 8. Tonali S. 28. Willock J. 9. Wilson C.	27. Adeyemi K. 42. Blank H. 43. Bynoe-Gittens J. 9. Haller S. 35. Lotka M. (G) 33. Meyer A. (G) 18. Moukoko Y. 6. Ozcan S. 7. Reyna G. 25. Sule N.
Coaches
Howe E.	Terzic E.

Preview

Two teams got a triumph in the latest matches.

Recently opponents have a series of home games.

In this match Newcastle is a favorite.

There will not play in Newcastle: Barnes H. (Ankle Injury) Botman S. (Knee Injury) Miley L. (Illness)

There will not play in Borussia D: Duranville J. (Thigh Injury) Meunier T. (Inactive) Morey M. (Inactive) Ryerson J. (Illness)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Willock J. (Muscle Injury)

Our prediction for today's Newcastle to win the game is with odds 1.6.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
21.10.23	Newcastle United - Crystal Palace	4:0 ✺
08.10.23	West Ham United - Newcastle United	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.10.23	Newcastle United - Paris Saint-Germain	4:1 ✺
English Premier League
30.09.23	Newcastle United - Burnley	2:0 ✺
English League Cup
27.09.23	Newcastle United - Manchester City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WTWWW
- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
20.10.23	Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen	1:0 ✺
07.10.23	Borussia Dortmund - Union Berlin	4:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.10.23	Borussia Dortmund - Milan	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.09.23	Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund	1:3 ✺
23.09.23	Borussia Dortmund - Wolfsburg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWTWW

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