Match Info

Premier League - Round 35

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Kavanagh C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Newcastle United		Brighton & Hove Albion

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.6	2.45
	2.78	3.6	2.48
	2.82	3.7	2.56
	2.66	3.7	2.6	Watch
	2.63	3.4	2.45
	2.77	3.69	2.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.41)	3.62 ↓ (3.87)	2.51 ↓ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
35.2%

Draw
26.5%

Brighton & Hove Albion
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

24.8%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

25.6%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Brighton & Hove Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Newcastle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brighton & Hove Albion than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
32.3%	29%	38.7%

Newcastle United - Brighton & Hove Albion Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 10 - 33.3%). Brighton & Hove will win (votes: 11 - 36.7%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brighton & Hove: 19.5% – 53.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Brighton & Hove (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pope N. (G) 67. Miley L. 12. Thiaw M. 4. Botman S. 33. Burn D. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 8. Tonali S. 28. Willock J. 23. Murphy J. 18. Osula W. 7. Joelinton	1. Verbruggen B. (G) 27. Wieffer M. 6. van Hecke J. P. 21. Boscagli O. 24. Kadioglu F. 30. Gross P. 17. Baleba C. 11. Minteh Y. 13. Hinshelwood J. 22. Mitoma K. 18. Welbeck D. (C)
Substitutes
11. Barnes H. 20. Elanga A. 10. Gordon A. 3. Hall L. 32. Ramsdale A. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 2. Trippier K. 9. Wissa Y. 27. Woltemade N.	26. Ayari Y. 29. De Cuyper M. 5. Dunk L. 3. Igor 19. Kostoulas C. 33. O'Riley M. 10. Rutter G. 23. Steele J. (G) 34. Veltman J.
Coaches
Howe E.	Hurzeler F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Osula W. ⚽, Murphy J. (A),
18', Wieffer M. ↓, Veltman J. ↑,
22', Veltman J. 🟨,
24', 2 - 0, Burn D. ⚽, Bruno Guimaraes (A),
39', Mitoma K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Burn D. 🟨,
61', 2 - 1, Hinshelwood J. ⚽, Welbeck D. (A),
68', Willock J. ↓, Hall L. ↑,
68', Murphy J. ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
68', Osula W. ↓, Wissa Y. ↑,
80', Baleba C. ↓, Kostoulas C. ↑,
80', Welbeck D. ↓, Rutter G. ↑,
81', Veltman J. ↓, De Cuyper M. ↑,
85', Tonali S. 🟨,
87', Hurzeler F. 🟨,
87', Wissa Y. 🟨,
88', Hinshelwood J. ↓, Dunk L. ↑,
90+1', Bruno Guimaraes ↓, Ramsey J. ↑,
90+2', van Hecke J. P. 🟨,
90+5', 3 - 1, Barnes H. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 0.

Newcastle is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Brighton & Hove is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Brighton & Hove may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Newcastle: Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Livramento V. (Injury) Schar F. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Brighton & Hove: Gomez D. (Injury) March S. (Muscle Injury) Milner J. (Injury) Tzimas S. (Knee Injury) Webster A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Gordon A. (Hip Injury)

We predict that Brighton & Hove will win today's game, with odds of 2.67.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:24. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 0.9:1.1).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Brighton: 3.38%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Brighton	6	4	1	1	18:5	13	13
11	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9:9	0	8

Last Results with these Odds

Newcastle United - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 39.81%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Brighton & Hove Albion - the odds 2.71 are the expected chance of winning is 35.4%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
25.04.26	Arsenal - Newcastle United	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Newcastle United - Bournemouth	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Crystal Palace - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Newcastle United - Sunderland	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.03.26	Barcelona - Newcastle United	7:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Brighton & Hove Albion
English Premier League
21.04.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Chelsea	3:0 ✺
18.04.26	Tottenham Hotspur - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Burnley - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:2 ✺
21.03.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Liverpool	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Sunderland - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
18.10.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Newcastle United	2:1
04.05.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Newcastle United	1:1
English FA Cup
02.03.25	Newcastle United - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:2 ET
English Premier League
19.10.24	Newcastle United - Brighton & Hove Albion	0:1
11.05.24	Newcastle United - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:1
02.09.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - Newcastle United	3:1
Club Friendly
28.07.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - Newcastle United	1:2

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