Match Info

Premier League - Round 17

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Madley A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Sport 24


	Newcastle United		Chelsea

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.5	2.45
	2.72	3.55	2.55
	2.87	3.6	2.54
	2.8	3.57	2.54	Watch
	2.7	3.3	2.5
	2.81	3.6	2.62	Watch
	2.8	3.5	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↑ (2.44)	3.52 ↓ (3.63)	2.52 ↓ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
34.6%

Draw
27.3%

Chelsea
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

26.2%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

27%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelsea than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.3%	25.4%	33.3%

Newcastle United - Chelsea Predictions

Users Predictions: 62 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 26 - 41.9%). Chelsea will win (votes: 21 - 33.9%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 24.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 29.6% – 54.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 7 - 25.9%). Chelsea (votes: 9 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 11 - 40.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Newcastle (2.02) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Newcastle (1.98) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 10 - 32.3%). Chelsea (votes: 10 - 32.3%). Tie (votes: 11 - 35.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Ramsdale A. (G) 67. Miley L. 12. Thiaw M. 5. Schar F. 3. Hall L. 39. Bruno Guimaraes (C) 8. Tonali S. 41. Ramsey J. 23. Murphy J. 27. Woltemade N. 10. Gordon A.	1. Sanchez R. (G) 27. Gusto M. 29. Fofana W. 23. Chalobah T. 3. Cucurella M. 24. James R. (C) 25. Caicedo M. 7. Neto P. 10. Palmer C. 49. Garnacho A. 20. Joao Pedro
Substitutes
11. Barnes H. 20. Elanga A. 7. Joelinton 37. Murphy A. 62. Neave S. 26. Ruddy J. (G) 61. Shahar L. 28. Willock J. 9. Wissa Y.	34. Acheampong J. 4. Adarabioyo T. 17. Andrey Santos 5. Badiashile B. 40. Buonanotte F. 8. Fernandez E. 38. Guiu M. 21. Hato J. 12. Jorgensen F. (G)
Coaches
Howe E.	Maresca E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Woltemade N. ⚽,
7', Sanchez R. 🟨,
20', 2 - 0, Woltemade N. ⚽, Gordon A. (A),
27', Garnacho A. 🟨,
45', Gusto M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
49', 2 - 1, James R. ⚽,
54', Gusto M. ↓, Fernandez E. ↑,
58', Maresca E. 🟨,
61', Schar F. 🟨,
66', 2 - 2, Joao Pedro ⚽, Sanchez R. (A),
70', Caicedo M. 🟨,
72', Gordon A. ↓, Barnes H. ↑,
73', Woltemade N. ↓, Wissa Y. ↑,
73', Murphy J. ↓, Elanga A. ↑,
77', Wissa Y. 🟨,
79', Palmer C. ↓, Andrey Santos ↑,
82', Andrey Santos 🟨,
83', Joao Pedro 🟨,
86', Hall L. 🟨,
89', Ramsey J. ↓, Willock J. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Chelsea may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Chelsea has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Newcastle: Botman S. (Lower Back Injury) Burn D. (Chest Injury) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Livramento V. (Knee Injury) Osula W. (Ankle Injury) Trippier K. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Chelsea: Colwill L. (Knee Injury) Delap L. (Shoulder Injury) Essugo D. (Thigh Injury) Estêvão (Muscle Injury) Lavia R. (Thigh Injury) Mudryk M. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Pope N. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 22:29. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 1.6:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English League Cup
17.12.25	Newcastle United - Fulham	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
14.12.25	Sunderland - Newcastle United	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Newcastle United	2:2 ✺
English Premier League
06.12.25	Newcastle United - Burnley	2:1 ✺
02.12.25	Newcastle United - Tottenham Hotspur	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLTWT
- Chelsea
English League Cup
16.12.25	Cardiff City - Chelsea	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
13.12.25	Chelsea - Everton	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.12.25	Atalanta - Chelsea	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
06.12.25	Bournemouth - Chelsea	0:0 ✺
03.12.25	Leeds United - Chelsea	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
11.05.25	Newcastle United - Chelsea	2:0
English League Cup
30.10.24	Newcastle United - Chelsea	2:0
English Premier League
27.10.24	Chelsea - Newcastle United	2:1
11.03.24	Chelsea - Newcastle United	3:2
English League Cup
19.12.23	Chelsea - Newcastle United	2:1 penalties
English Premier League
25.11.23	Newcastle United - Chelsea	4:1
Club Friendly
26.07.23	Chelsea - Newcastle United	1:1

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