Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 18 July 2025, Friday

Location: WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, NC)

Referee: Encarnación J. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, Paramount+


	North Carolina		Indy Eleven

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3.3	2.95
	2.1	3.4	3.1
	2.06	3.63	3.45
	1.37	4.50	8.36	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.3
	2.04	3.42	3.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.06)	3.56 ↑ (3.52)	4.08 ↑ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Carolina
49.4%

Draw
27%

Indy Eleven
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

26.7%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

27.7%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Carolina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Indy Eleven has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for North Carolina than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Indy Eleven than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

North Carolina - Indy Eleven Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Mulqueen T. (G) 14. Rafa Mentzingen 5. Craig P. (C) 20. Donovan C. 66. Sundstrom F. 10. Servania J. 8. Pedro Becker 17. Martin C. 15. Maldonado M. 13. Perez L. 7. Conway E.	98. Sulte H. (G) 33. White H. 2. O'Brien J. 41. Musa J. 27. Rendon B. 6. Lindley C. 5. Murphy J. 14. Quinn A. (C) 22. Amoh E. 9. Williams R. 8. Blake J.
Substitutes
19. Al Qaq A. 9. Anderson O. 11. Burner P. 55. Hodge T. 26. Luckhurst A. 1. McGuire J. (G) 44. Sommersall R. 27. Washington B.	21. Bryneus O. 23. Charles-Cook R. (G) 18. Collier E. 3. Hogan P. 19. Kizza E. 4. McRobb F. 17. Neidlinger L.
Coaches
Bradford J.	McAuley S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', Rafa Mentzingen 🟨,
18', Rendon B. 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, Rafa Mentzingen ⚽,
41', Blake J. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Murphy J. ⚽, Amoh E. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', O'Brien J. ↓, Hogan P. ↑,
49', 2 - 1, Servania J. ⚽, Perez L. (A),
55', 3 - 1, Conway E. ⚽, Maldonado M. (A),
59', Martin C. 🟨,
64', Amoh E. ↓, Collier E. ↑,
64', Murphy J. ↓, Bryneus O. ↑,
64', Williams R. ↓, Kizza E. ↑,
71', Rafa Mentzingen ↓, Burner P. ↑,
71', Martin C. ↓, Sommersall R. ↑,
74', 4 - 1, Pedro Becker ⚽, Perez L. (A),
81', Perez L. ↓, Al Qaq A. ↑,
81', Pedro Becker ↓, Luckhurst A. ↑,
90+3', 4 - 2, Blake J. (Pen),

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, North Carolina won 1.

Recent form of North Carolina has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Indy's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Indy has had a series of home games.

North Carolina could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, North Carolina won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 27:32. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, North Carolina won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:10. (average 2:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Carolina FC
USL Championship
11.07.25	North Carolina - Birmingham Legion	2:3 ✺
06.07.25	Charleston Battery - North Carolina	1:0 ✺
USL Cup
29.06.25	Louisville City - North Carolina	1:0 ✺
USL Championship
20.06.25	North Carolina - Louisville City	2:1 ✺
14.06.25	Rhode Island - North Carolina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLWL
- Indy Eleven
USL Championship
12.07.25	Indy Eleven - Rhode Island	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	Indy Eleven - Monterey Bay	3:0 ✺
USL Cup
28.06.25	Indy Eleven - Birmingham Legion	2:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
25.06.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Indy Eleven	3:1 ✺
21.06.25	Indy Eleven - Las Vegas Lights	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
05.04.25	Indy Eleven - North Carolina	2:2
21.09.24	North Carolina - Indy Eleven	2:0
27.04.24	Indy Eleven - North Carolina	2:1
03.08.19	North Carolina - Indy Eleven	1:2
04.05.19	Indy Eleven - North Carolina	0:0
15.08.18	Indy Eleven - North Carolina	3:2
07.04.18	North Carolina - Indy Eleven	0:1

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