Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 9 May 2025, Friday

Location: WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, NC)

Referee: Albuquerque R. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	CBS, Paramount+


	North Carolina		Orange County SC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.78	3.4	3.75
	2.02	3.25	3.6
	2.09	3.25	3.67
	2.07	3.22	3.69	Watch
	2.03	3.25	3.7	Watch
	2.02	3.25	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.44)	3.27 ↑ (3.14)	3.67 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Carolina
46.3%

Draw
28.4%

Orange County SC
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

29.4%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

28.7%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Carolina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in North Carolina's performance.

Orange County SC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Orange County SC might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for North Carolina than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with North Carolina that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Orange County SC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

North Carolina - Orange County SC Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. North Carolina will win (votes: 17 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for North Carolina: 100% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - North Carolina (1.52) (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - North Carolina (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - North Carolina (4.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): North Carolina will win (14 of 14 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. North Carolina (votes: 21 - 95.5%). Orange County SC (votes: 1 - 4.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. McGuire J. (G) 66. Sundstrom F. 27. Washington B. 5. Craig P. (C) 14. Rafa Mentzingen 16. Da Costa R. 15. Maldonado M. 10. Servania J. 8. Pedro Becker 17. Martin C. 26. Luckhurst A.	1. Shutler C. (G) 3. Santos K. 5. Brewitt T. (C) 20. Latinovich V. 23. Doghman R. 19. Partida K. 11. Jamison B. 4. Benalcazar N. 6. Scott K. 7. Dunbar C. 17. MacKinnon L.
Substitutes
19. Al Qaq A. 9. Anderson O. 11. Burner P. 20. Donovan C. 25. Fitzgerald A. (G) 55. Hodge T. 13. Perez L. 71. Quintanilla J. 44. Sommersall R.	24. Barjolo B. 13. Guimaraes P. 14. Hegardt C. 31. Kadono T. (G) 33. Miles A. 10. Trager T. 21. War M. 9. Zubak E.
Coaches
Bradford J.	Stone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Servania J. 🟨,
41', Latinovich V. 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Da Costa R. ⚽, Maldonado M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Jamison B. ↓, Trager T. ↑,
64', Latinovich V. ↓, Hegardt C. ↑,
65', Da Costa R. ↓, Perez L. ↑,
74', Servania J. ↓, Burner P. ↑,
75', Martin C. ↓, Sommersall R. ↑,
80', Dunbar C. ↓, Barjolo B. ↑,
83', Partida K. 🟨,
84', Partida K. ↓, Zubak E. ↑,
84', Scott K. ↓, Miles A. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

North Carolina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, North Carolina is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, North Carolina won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Carolina FC
US Open Cup
06.05.25	North Carolina - Charlotte	1:4 ET ✺
USL Championship
03.05.25	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - North Carolina	0:2 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.25	North Carolina - Charlotte Independence	1:2 ✺
USL Championship
19.04.25	Miami - North Carolina	2:1 ✺
US Open Cup
15.04.25	Charlotte Independence - North Carolina	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWLLW
- Orange County SC
USL Championship
03.05.25	Orange County SC - Tulsa	2:1 ✺
USL Cup
26.04.25	Orange County SC - Las Vegas Lights	1:3 ✺
USL Championship
19.04.25	Oakland Roots - Orange County SC	2:0 ✺
US Open Cup
15.04.25	AV Alta - Orange County SC	3:2 penalties ✺
USL Championship
12.04.25	Orange County SC - Sacramento Republic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
03.08.24	Orange County SC - North Carolina	0:1

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