Match Info

League One - Round 36

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: The Cherry Red Records Stadium (London)

Referee: Bell E. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	AFC Wimbledon		Northampton Town

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.4	3.8	Watch
	1.98	3.4	3.6
	1.92	3.45	3.7	Watch
	2	3.54	3.89
	1.99	3.35	3.8	Watch
	1.95	3.25	3.75
	1.93	3.44	3.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.01)	3.4 ↑ (3.34)	3.77 ↑ (3.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AFC Wimbledon
47.9%

Draw
27.4%

Northampton Town
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

28%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

23.5%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AFC Wimbledon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AFC Wimbledon that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Northampton Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	18.2%	9.1%

AFC Wimbledon - Northampton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Wimbledon will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Northampton will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wimbledon: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Wimbledon (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. McDonnell J. (G) 33. Ogundere I. 15. Bauer P. 6. Johnson R. (C) 7. Tilley J. 12. Smith A. 8. Maycock C. 21. Hippolyte M. 3. Seddon S. 14. Stevens M. 11. Browne M.	1. Burge L. (G) 2. Burroughs J. 24. Moore E. 18. Forbes M. 21. Perkins J. 23. Taylor T. 4. Campbell D. 15. Evans J. 14. Fornah T. 8. McGeehan C. (C) 9. Eaves T.
Substitutes
2. Asiimwe N. 9. Bugiel O. 16. Hackford A. 31. Lewis J. 37. Nelson Z. 30. Nkeng R. 4. Reeves J.	35. Dyche M. 34. Fitzsimons R. (G) 12. Guinness-Walker N. 7. Hoskins S. 17. Jacobs M. 10. List E. 27. Vale J.
Coaches
Jackson J.	Nolan K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Maycock C. ⚽, Browne M. (A),
31', Fornah T. ↓, Dyche M. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Burroughs J. ↓, Guinness-Walker N. ↑,
46', Perkins J. ↓, Hoskins S. ↑,
55', Eaves T. ↓, Vale J. ↑,
66', Tilley J. ↓, Lewis J. ↑,
72', Hippolyte M. ↓, Nelson Z. ↑,
72', Stevens M. ↓, Bugiel O. ↑,
80', Dyche M. 🟨,
86', Taylor T. ↓, Jacobs M. ↑,
86', Browne M. ↓, Hackford A. ↑,
87', Maycock C. ↓, Reeves J. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 14 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wimbledon won 1.

Recent performances by Wimbledon have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Northampton is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Wimbledon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Wimbledon will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Wimbledon: McCoy-Splatt D. (Inactive) Sasu A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Northampton: Edwards K. (Injury) Guthrie J. (Inactive) Shaw L. (Knee Injury) Wormleighton J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Wimbledon: Lewis J. (Inactive) Stewart L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Northampton: Guinness-Walker N. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wimbledon won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 15:26. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Wimbledon won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:14. (average 0.8:1.6).

Outrights of English League One for now

AFC Wimbledon: 0.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	AFC Wimbledon	9	3	3	3	7:10	-3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Wimbledon
English League One
28.02.26	Mansfield Town - AFC Wimbledon	2:2 ✺
21.02.26	AFC Wimbledon - Bradford City	3:1 ✺
17.02.26	Cardiff City - AFC Wimbledon	4:1 ✺
14.02.26	Barnsley - AFC Wimbledon	3:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
10.02.26	AFC Wimbledon - Northampton Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TWLTL
- Northampton Town
English EFL Trophy
04.03.26	Luton Town - Northampton Town	2:1 ✺
English League One
28.02.26	Northampton Town - Peterborough United	1:1 ✺
24.02.26	Northampton Town - Port Vale	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Northampton Town - Leyton Orient	1:2 ✺
17.02.26	Lincoln City - Northampton Town	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
10.02.26	AFC Wimbledon - Northampton Town	1:2
English League One
19.12.25	Northampton Town - AFC Wimbledon	3:1
English League Two
14.02.23	Northampton Town - AFC Wimbledon	0:0
13.09.22	AFC Wimbledon - Northampton Town	0:2
English League Cup
24.08.21	Northampton Town - AFC Wimbledon	0:1
English League One
27.03.21	AFC Wimbledon - Northampton Town	1:0
12.09.20	Northampton Town - AFC Wimbledon	2:2

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