Match Info

Championship - Round 26

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Carrow Road (Norwich)

Referee: Hallam F. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Turkey	Exxen
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Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Norwich City		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	3.75	Watch
	1.99	3.57	3.72	Watch
	1.98	3.71	3.59	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.6
	2.02	3.62	3.87	Watch
	2	3.6	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.58)	3.57 ↑ (3.48)	3.7 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Norwich City
47.9%

Draw
26.5%

Stoke City
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

26.7%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

26.5%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Norwich City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Norwich City's performance.

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stoke City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Norwich City than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Norwich City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stoke City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	5.6%	19.4%

Norwich City - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Norwich will win (votes: 27 - 75%). Stoke will win (votes: 7 - 19.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 5.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Norwich: 60.9% – 89.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Norwich City will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kovacevic V. (G) 35. Fisher K. 15. McConville R. 6. Darling H. 47. Mahovo L. 23. McLean K. 7. Mattsson P. 24. Makama J. 10. Jurasek M. 16. Wright J. 9. Sargent J.	25. Simkin T. (G) 40. Talovierov M. 26. Phillips A. 16. Wilmot B. 18. Lawal B. 19. Rigo T. 4. Pearson B. 29. Cisse L. 10. Bae J. 7. Thomas S. 9. Mubama D.
Substitutes
14. Chrisene B. 32. Grimshaw D. (G) 30. Kvistgaarden M. 11. Marcondes E. 5. Medic J. 29. Schwartau O. 20. Slimane A. 42. Springett T. 3. Stacey J.	13. Bonham J. (G) . Dixon J. 56. Fawunmi F. 20. Gallagher S. 5. Griffin J. 6. Kelly G. 42. Manhoef M. 15. N'Zonzi S. 12. Seko T.
Coaches
Clement P.	Robins M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Lawal B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Mubama D. ↓, Gallagher S. ↑,
60', Jurasek M. ↓, Schwartau O. ↑,
60', Mahovo L. ↓, Chrisene B. ↑,
61', Cisse L. ↓, Manhoef M. ↑,
61', Rigo T. ↓, Seko T. ↑,
68', Wright J. ↓, Marcondes E. ↑,
72', Pearson B. 🟨,
75', 0 - 1, Gallagher S. ⚽, Thomas S. (A),
82', 0 - 2, Thomas S. ⚽, Manhoef M. (A),
85', Fisher K. 🟨,
89', Fisher K. ↓, Stacey J. ↑,
89', Sargent J. ↓, Kvistgaarden M. ↑,
90', Pearson B. ↓, N'Zonzi S. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Norwich won 3.

Norwich is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Stoke's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Norwich might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Norwich: Crnac A. (Knee Injury) Diallo P. A. (Muscle Injury) Duffy S. (Inactive) Forson A. (Hamstring Injury) Forsyth G. (Knee Injury) Schlupp J. (Hamstring Injury) Topic M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Stoke: Baker L. (Ankle Injury) Bocat E. (Inactive) Cresswell A. (Injury) Tchamadeu J. (International duty)

There are questionable in Stoke: Bozenik R. (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Norwich won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:18. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Norwich won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:7. (average 1.9:0.9).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Norwich: 5.08%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Stoke	8	4	1	3	13:12	1	13
17	Norwich	8	3	0	5	16:17	-1	9

Last Results with these Odds

Norwich City - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 36.09%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Norwich City
English League Championship
01.01.26	Queens Park Rangers - Norwich City	1:2 ✺
29.12.25	Norwich City - Watford	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Norwich City - Charlton Athletic	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Preston North End - Norwich City	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Norwich City - Southampton	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 WLWTW
- Stoke City
English League Championship
01.01.26	Hull City - Stoke City	0:1 ✺
29.12.25	Stoke City - Sheffield United	1:2 ✺
26.12.25	Stoke City - Preston North End	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Watford - Stoke City	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Stoke City - Swansea City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
27.09.25	Stoke City - Norwich City	1:1
22.02.25	Norwich City - Stoke City	4:2
19.10.24	Stoke City - Norwich City	1:1
16.03.24	Stoke City - Norwich City	0:3
16.09.23	Norwich City - Stoke City	1:0
18.03.23	Stoke City - Norwich City	0:0
29.10.22	Norwich City - Stoke City	3:1

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