The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Notts County 37%
Draw 26.8%
Port Vale 36.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
42.7%
26.9%
30.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
45.2%
28.5%
28.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Notts County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Notts County's form might have worsened.
Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Port Vale's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (+8.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Notts County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-7.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Port Vale, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
33.3%
44.4%
22.2%
Notts County - Port Vale Predictions
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Notts County will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Port Vale will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 11.9% – 76.9%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Bass A. (G) 28. Macari L. 5. Platt M. 4. Bedeau J. 25. Tsaroulla N. 18. Palmer M. (C) 7. Crowley D. 2. Gordon K. 8. Austin S. 20. Robertson S. 29. Jatta A.
1. Ripley C. (G) 22. Debrah J. 5. Hall C. 24. Kyle John 27. Cover B. 18. Croasdale R. 8. Garrity B. (C) 23. Shorrock J. 19. Tolaj L. 11. Curtis R. 17. Paton R.
Substitutes
33. Abbott G. 14. Brown J. 24. Cundy R. 6. Hinchy J. 19. Martin J. 9. Scott C. 21. Slocombe S. (G)
13. Amos B. (G) 10. Chislett E. 4. Heneghan B. 16. Lowe J. 26. Richards R. 20. Sang T. 9. Stockley J.
Coaches
Maynard S.
Moore D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Platt M. 🟨,
22', Robertson S. 🟨,
23', 0 - 1, Tolaj L. ⚽, Curtis R. (A),
33', Curtis R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Tsaroulla N. ↓, Abbott G. ↑,
54', Paton R. 🟨,
59', Shorrock J. ↓, Heneghan B. ↑,
60', Paton R. ↓, Stockley J. ↑,
60', Curtis R. ↓, Richards R. ↑,
63', Robertson S. ↓, Scott C. ↑,
67', Gordon K. 🟨,
69', Austin S. ↓, Martin J. ↑,
70', Tolaj L. ↓, Sang T. ↑,
77', Cover B. 🟨,
77', Hall C. 🟨,
84', Palmer M. ↓, Cundy R. ↑,
90+4', Kyle John ↓, Lowe J. ↑,
Preview
One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Notts County won 2.
Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.
Notts County could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
Recently Notts County have a series of guest games.
In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.
Last 9 head-to-head matches Notts County won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 12:9 (average 1.3:1).
Including matches at home between the teams Notts County won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:3 (average 1.3:0.8).
Last Results with these Odds
Notts County - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 42.66%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.
Watch
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Bass A. (G) 
Macari L. 
Bedeau J. 
Tsaroulla N. 
Jatta A. 
Cover B. 
Tolaj L. 
Curtis R. 
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