Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio El Teniente (Rancagua)

Referee: Perez Y. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol, fubo Sports Network
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
South-america	ViX Latin America
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter


	OHiggins		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.1	2.35	Watch
	2.8	3.2	2.45
	2.98	2.98	2.48	Watch
	3.14	3.13	2.46
	3.06	3.18	2.43	Watch
	3	2.9	2.4
	3.06	3.04	2.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.99 ↓ (3.78)	3.08 ↓ (3.23)	2.42 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

OHiggins
31.2%

Draw
30.3%

São Paulo
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

29.2%

45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.7%

28.8%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

OHiggins has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in OHiggins's performance.

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and São Paulo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for OHiggins than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with OHiggins that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that São Paulo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.5%	87.5%

OHiggins - São Paulo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - São Paulo (2.01) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: São Paulo will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Carabali O. (G) 3. Faundez F. 21. Garrido N. 33. Brizuela M. 6. Pavez L. 8. Felipe Ogaz 11. Leiva J. 24. Gonzalez F. 10. Rabello B. (C) 7. Martin Sarrafiore 9. Castillo A.	31. Carlos Coronel (G) 40. Igor Felisberto 4. Matheus Doria (C) 54. Luis Osorio 13. Diaz E. 48. Djhordney 33. Luan Silva 14. Tapia G. 80. Cauly 11. Ferreira 17. Andre Silva
Substitutes
20. Diaz L. 26. Godoy R. 14. Maturana M. 18. Moreira E. 27. Movillo J. 1. Pena Jorge (G) 5. Pinto G. 22. Robledo A. 15. Rojas B. 28. Schamine B. 32. Vecino T. 29. Yanez B.	37. Artur 56. Bosshardt N. 94. Danielzinho 30. Felipe Negrucci 9. Jonathan Calleri 45. Lucca Marques 10. Luciano 46. Pedro Ferreira 23. Rafael (G) 35. Sabino 21. Soares C. 18. Wendell
Coaches
Bovaglio L.	Roger Machado

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Djhordney 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Ferreira ↓, Artur ↑,
66', Djhordney ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
66', Brizuela M. 🟨,
67', Garrido N. 🟨,
74', Rabello B. ↓, Vecino T. ↑,
75', Leiva J. 🟨,
80', Cauly ↓, Felipe Negrucci ↑,
80', Tapia G. ↓, Lucca Marques ↑,
84', Luan Silva ↓, Sabino ↑,
88', Sabino 🟨,

Preview

OHiggins is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, São Paulo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, OHiggins has had a series of away games.

São Paulo will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, OHiggins won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OHiggins
Chilean Copa de la Liga
03.05.26	Deportes Limache - OHiggins	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	OHiggins - Boston River	2:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
25.04.26	Ñublense - OHiggins	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Cobresal - OHiggins	2:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	São Paulo - OHiggins	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 TWWWL
- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.26	São Paulo - Bahia	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.04.26	Millonarios - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.04.26	São Paulo - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.04.26	São Paulo - Juventude	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Vasco da Gama - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
14.04.26	São Paulo - OHiggins	2:0

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