Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Olympique Marseille		Ajax

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.2	5.75
	1.55	4.5	5.75
	1.55	4.5	5.97
	1.00	19.01	89.12	Watch
	1.59	4.31	5.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.58)	7.3 ↑ (4.44)	22.5 ↑ (5.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
79.2%

Draw
15.7%

Ajax
5.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.5%

21.6%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.8%

21.4%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Olympique Marseille's performance.

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ajax might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (-19.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Olympique Marseille that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+13%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ajax could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.9%	6%	7.1%

Olympique Marseille - Ajax Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -1.25 - Marseille (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Ajax (2.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Ajax (4.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Marseille (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Olympique Marseille will win (72 of 83 users predict this - 86.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.46% – 94.04%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Olympique Marseille will win (32 of 36 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 40 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 34 - 85%). Ajax (votes: 2 - 5%). Tie (votes: 4 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rulli G. (G) 32. Medina F. 28. Pavard B. 21. Aguerd N. 33. Emerson 26. Nadir B. 17. O'Riley M. 18. Vermeeren A. 10. Greenwood M. 97. Aubameyang P. (C) 14. Paixao I.	1. Jaros V. (G) 2. Rosa L. 4. Itakura K. 15. Baas Y. 5. Wijndal O. 6. Regeer Y. 18. Klaassen D. (C) 10. Gloukh O. 8. Taylor K. 23. Berghuis S. 11. Godts M.
Substitutes
5. Balerdi L. 12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 8. Gomes A. 9. Gouiri A. 23. Hojbjerg P. 62. Murillo M. 40. Van Neck J. (G) 34. Vaz R. 22. Weah T.	41. Alders G. 43. Bounida R. 17. Edvardsen O. 28. Fitz-Jim K. 3. Gaaei A. 19. Konadu D. 24. Mokio J. 7. Moro R. 22. Pasveer R. (G) 52. Reverson P. (G) 37. Sutalo J.
Coaches
De Zerbi R.	Heitinga J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Paixao I. ⚽, Aubameyang P. (A),
12', 2 - 0, Paixao I. ⚽, Vermeeren A. (A),
23', Regeer Y. ↓, Mokio J. ↑,
26', 3 - 0, Greenwood M. ⚽, Aubameyang P. (A),
34', Rosa L. 🟨,
36', Medina F. ↓, Egan-Riley C. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Nadir B. ↓, Weah T. ↑,
46', Berghuis S. ↓, Edvardsen O. ↑,
52', 4 - 0, Aubameyang P. ⚽, Paixao I. (A),
55', Wijndal O. ↓, Gaaei A. ↑,
55', Baas Y. ↓, Sutalo J. ↑,
62', Paixao I. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
62', O'Riley M. ↓, Hojbjerg P. ↑,
66', Itakura K. 🟨,
76', Gaaei A. 🟨,
79', Hojbjerg P. 🟨,
82', Vermeeren A. ↓, Murillo M. ↑,
84', Godts M. ↓, Moro R. ↑,
85', Aguerd N. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Marseille may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Marseille is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Marseille: Blanco R. (Inactive) Kondogbia G. (Calf Injury) Lirola P. (Inactive) Traore H. J. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Ajax: Dolberg K. (Abdominal strain) McConnell J. (Health problems) Weghorst W. (Knock) van den Boomen B. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Marseille: Bakola D. (Inactive) Balerdi L. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 3:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 3:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
26.09.25	Strasbourg - Olympique Marseille	1:2 ✺
22.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Real Madrid - Olympique Marseille	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
12.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Lorient	4:0 ✺
31.08.25	Lyon - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWLWL
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
27.09.25	Ajax - NAC Breda	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	PSV Eindhoven - Ajax	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.09.25	Ajax - Inter Milan	0:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
13.09.25	Ajax - Zwolle	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Volendam - Ajax	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTLWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
30.11.23	Olympique Marseille - Ajax	4:3
21.09.23	Ajax - Olympique Marseille	3:3
Club Friendly
20.07.16	Olympique Marseille - Ajax	2:2

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