Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 2

Date: 5 October 2023, Thursday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Balakin M. (Ukr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Belgium	VOOsport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 1, V Sport
Italy	Sky Sport
Netherlands	ESPN
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Olympique Marseille		Brighton & Hove Albion

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.8	2
	3.1	3.8	2.15
	3.2	4	2.1	Watch
	3.2	3.8	2.11
	3.29	3.9	2.14
	3.1	4	2.05
	3.4	4.1	2.15
	3.2	3.95	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↑ (2.87)	3.92 ↑ (3.64)	2.1 ↓ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 0.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
29.8%

Draw
24.5%

Brighton & Hove Albion
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

26.3%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

26.3%

40.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Brighton & Hove Albion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Brighton & Hove Albion's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brighton & Hove Albion than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Brighton & Hove Albion, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.9%	23.1%	59%

Olympique Marseille - Brighton & Hove Albion Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 7 - 17.9%). Brighton & Hove will win (votes: 23 - 59%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Brighton & Hove: 43.6% – 74.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Lopez P. (G) 7. Clauss J. 99. Mbemba Ch. 5. Balerdi L. 62. Murillo M. 11. Harit A. 27. Veretout J. 21. Rongier V. (C) 20. Correa J. 10. Aubameyang P. 29. Ndiaye I.	23. Steele J. (G) 2. Lamptey T. 29. van Hecke J. P. 5. Dunk L. (C) 34. Veltman J. 8. Dahoud M. 13. Gross P. 7. March S. 22. Mitoma K. 31. Fati A. 18. Welbeck D.
Substitutes
36. Blanco R. (G) 42. Caprice A. 12. Lodi R. 18. Meite A. 34. Nadir B. 1. Ngapandouetnbu S. (G) 8. Ounahi A. 23. Sarr I. 37. Soglo E. 33. Tunkadi A. 9. Vitinha	24. Adingra S. 20. Baleba C. 40. Buonanotte F. 28. Ferguson E. 11. Gilmour B. 41. Hinshelwood J. 3. Igor 9. Joao Pedro 38. McGill T. (G) 1. Verbruggen B. (G) 4. Webster A.
Coaches
Gattuso G.	De Zerbi R.

Preview

Marseille is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Brighton & Hove is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Marseille could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Marseille have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Marseille: Gueye P. (Suspended) Kondogbia G. (Groin Injury) Ruiz P. (Injury) Sarr I. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Brighton & Hove: Enciso J. (Knee Injury) Moder J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Brighton & Hove: Gross P. (Muscle Injury) Lallana A. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
30.09.23	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	3:2 ✺
24.09.23	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
21.09.23	Ajax - Olympique Marseille	3:3 ✺
French Ligue 1
17.09.23	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	0:0 ✺
01.09.23	Nantes - Olympique Marseille	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTTT
- Brighton & Hove Albion
English Premier League
30.09.23	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	6:1 ✺
English League Cup
27.09.23	Chelsea - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:0 ✺
English Premier League
24.09.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - Bournemouth	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
21.09.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - AEK Athens	2:3 ✺
English Premier League
16.09.23	Manchester United - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLWLW

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