Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 21 September 2023, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	SuperSport
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Sport
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 3
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport
Denmark	21:00	TV2 Sport X
Finland	22:00	Viaplay, V Sport Urheilu
Hungary	21:00	RTL3
Netherlands	21:00	ESPN
Norway	21:00	Viaplay
Poland	21:00	Viaplay
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV4
Serbia	21:00	Arena Sport
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
United Kingdom	20:00	TNT Sports


	Ajax		Olympique Marseille

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.4	2.63
	2.6	3.6	2.65	Watch
	2.54	3.6	2.63
	2.62	3.67	2.68
	2.3	3.3	2.6
	2.65	3.72	2.81
	2.6	3.6	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.22)	3.56 ↓ (3.58)	2.67 ↓ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 0.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajax
37.4%

Draw
26.9%

Olympique Marseille
35.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.7%

26.5%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

26%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ajax's form might have worsened.

Olympique Marseille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ajax, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Olympique Marseille, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
51.1%	24.4%	24.4%

Ajax - Olympique Marseille Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Ajax will win (votes: 23 - 51.1%). Marseille will win (votes: 11 - 24.4%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 24.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ajax: 36.5% – 65.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gorter J. (G) 3. Gaaei A. 37. Sutalo J. 4. Hato J. 25. Sosa B. 33. Tahirovic B. 23. Berghuis S. 8. Taylor K. 11. Borges C. 9. Brobbey B. 7. Bergwijn S. (C)	16. Lopez P. (G) 7. Clauss J. 99. Mbemba Ch. 4. Gigot S. 12. Lodi R. 8. Ounahi A. 21. Rongier V. (C) 19. Kondogbia G. 11. Harit A. 29. Ndiaye I. 10. Aubameyang P.
Substitutes
10. Akpom Ch. 30. Avila G. 39. Godts M. 16. Mannsverk S. 18. Medic J. 19. Mikautadze G. 22. Pasveer R. (G) 40. Ramaj D. (G) 2. Rensch D. 17. Salah-Eddine A. 21. van den Boomen B. 24. Vos S.	5. Balerdi L. 36. Blanco R. (G) 20. Correa J. 18. Meite A. 24. Mughe F. R. 62. Murillo M. 34. Nadir B. 1. Ngapandouetnbu S. (G) 37. Soglo E. 27. Veretout J. 9. Vitinha
Coaches
Steijn M.	Abardonado J.

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Recently Ajax have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Marseille: Gueye P. (Suspended) Ruiz P. (Injury) Sarr I. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ajax: Kaplan A. (Knee Injury) Rulli G. (Shoulder Injury) van Axel Dongen A. (Knock)

There are questionable in Marseille: Balerdi L. (Injury) Murillo M. (Muscle Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Ajax won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
17.09.23	Twente - Ajax	3:1 ✺
03.09.23	Fortuna Sittard - Ajax	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
31.08.23	Ajax - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:1 ✺
24.08.23	Ludogorets Razgrad - Ajax	1:4 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
19.08.23	Excelsior - Ajax	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LTLWT
- Olympique Marseille
French Ligue 1
17.09.23	Olympique Marseille - Toulouse	0:0 ✺
01.09.23	Nantes - Olympique Marseille	1:1 ✺
26.08.23	Olympique Marseille - Brest	2:0 ✺
18.08.23	Metz - Olympique Marseille	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.08.23	Olympique Marseille - Panathinaikos	2:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
20.07.16	Olympique Marseille - Ajax	2:2

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