Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 5

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Meraj Sport, Meraj TV
Africa	CANAL+ Sport 1, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
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Asia	beIN Arabia, beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN
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Belgium	DAZN 1
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China	Migu
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Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium, V Sport Ultra
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
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United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, beIN Sports XTRA
Uzbekistan	Futbol TV, Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter
World	OneFootball TV


	Olympique Marseille		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	6.50	5.00	1.42	Watch
	5.75	5.25	1.46
	6.75	5.00	1.38	Watch
	7.10	5.40	1.43
	6.56	5.19	1.46	Watch
	7.05	5.25	1.41
	6.81	5.39	1.46	Watch
	6.20	5.40	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.59 ↑ (5.41)	5.24 ↑ (4.71)	1.43 ↓ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
14.6%

Draw
18.3%

Paris Saint-Germain
67.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.4%

20%

62.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.7%

18.6%

58.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Paris Saint-Germain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paris Saint-Germain, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	13.3%	76.7%

Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 3 - 10%). PSG will win (votes: 23 - 76.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PSG: 61.6% – 91.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.38) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Marseille (5.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 5.5 - under (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - PSG (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - PSG & Yes (2.50) (votes: 82%) ⭐ Best Value.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Paris Saint-Germain will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 2 - 33.3%). PSG (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. De Lange J. (G) 22. Weah T. (C) 4. Egan-Riley C. 21. Aguerd N. 33. Emerson 77. Harit A. 23. Hojbjerg P. 8. Abdelli H. 14. Paixao I. 11. Maupay N. 9. Gouiri A.	39. Safonov M. (G) 33. Zaire-Emery W. 5. Marquinhos (C) 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 87. Neves J. 17. Vitinha 8. Ruiz F. 14. Doue D. 10. Dembele O. 7. Kvaratskhelia K.
Substitutes
48. Abdallah K. 74. Bezahaf K. 13. Cornelius D. 25. Garcia U. 7. Gomes A. 46. Koum Mbondo A. 43. Mmadi T. 29. Moumbagna F. 92. Vermot T. (G)	11. Akliouche M. 4. Beraldo L. 30. Chevalier L. (G) 12. Digne L. 27. Fernandez D. 22. Godts M. 24. Mayulu S. 9. Torres F. 6. Zabarnyi I.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Paixao I. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
32', Weah T. 🟨,
39', Mendes N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
59', Kvaratskhelia K. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
63', Harit A. ↓, Abdallah K. ↑,
65', Ruiz F. ↓, Akliouche M. ↑,
66', 0 - 1, Torres F. ⚽, Doue D. (A),
72', 1 - 1, Gomes A. ⚽, Gouiri A. (A),
74', 1 - 2, Marquinhos ⚽,
77', Weah T. 🟨,
79', Doue D. ↓, Beraldo L. ↑,
79', Dembele O. ↓, Godts M. ↑,
81', Abdallah K. 🟨,
84', Abdelli H. ↓, Bezahaf K. ↑,
84', Maupay N. ↓, Moumbagna F. ↑,
84', Emerson ↓, Garcia U. ↑,
90', Gomes A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 1.

Marseille is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

PSG has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Marseille may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

PSG holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

Confirmed absences for Marseille: Kondogbia G. (Injury) Nnadi T. (Injury).

Confirmed absences for PSG: Hakimi A. (Thigh Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Marseille has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 16 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:46 (averaging 0.5:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Marseille against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with 3:13 goals (averaging 0.4:1.6 per game).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

PSG: 70.91% Marseille: 1.19%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	PSG	5	2	2	1	8:7	1	8
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7:8	-1	3

Last Results with these Odds

Paris Saint-Germain - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 62.64%, but this team recently wins 69% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	Beşiktaş - Olympique Marseille	4:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
11.09.26	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Olympique Marseille - Paris FC	2:3 ✺
30.08.26	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
21.08.26	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLLW
- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
13.09.26	Brest - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.09.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Slovan Bratislava	6:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
04.09.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	1:2 ✺
28.08.26	Lille - Paris Saint-Germain	2:2 ✺
23.08.26	Rennes - Paris Saint-Germain	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
08.02.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	5:0
French Super Cup
08.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	3:2 penalties
French Ligue 1
22.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0
16.03.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	3:1
27.10.24	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3
31.03.24	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	0:2
24.09.23	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	4:0

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