Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 2 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Palogrande (Manizales)

Referee: Ospina J. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2


	Once Caldas		Independiente Medellín

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.4	3.1	Watch
	2.28	3.25	3.05	Watch
	2.43	3.35	3.15
	2.24	3.36	3.13	Watch
	2.25	3.3	2.88
	2.35	3.08	3.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.06)	3.29 ↓ (3.78)	3.07 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Once Caldas
40.8%

Draw
28.6%

Independiente Medellín
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

24.7%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

24.5%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Once Caldas will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Parra J. (G) 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 16. Castano J. 2. Cardona J. 30. Tamayo K. 88. Mejia R. 10. Sanchez L. 42. Quinones J. 70. Quinones D. 17. Moreno D. (C) 9. Gomez P.	1. Ichazo S. (G) 2. Chaverra L. 24. Ortiz J. 33. Londono D. 26. Mena Perea E. 8. Serna A. 6. Moreno D. (C) 18. Fabra F. 13. Chaverra F. 9. Larrosa E. 20. Montano J.
Substitutes
12. Aguirre J. (G) 15. Alvarado J. 23. Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. 21. Guzman H. 4. Navarro E. 33. Patino J. 20. Roa A. 19. Rojas T. 28. Zuleta M.	10. Catano D. 25. Chaux E. (G) 5. Escorcia L. 16. Loboa H. 31. Moreno D. 30. Palacios H. 23. Palacios M. 14. Perlaza B. 11. Yony Gonzalez
Coaches
Herrera H.	Restrepo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Larrosa E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Moreno D. ↓, Perlaza B. ↑,
46', Mena Perea E. ↓, Catano D. ↑,
46', Tamayo K. ↓, Patino J. ↑,
63', Serna A. 🟨,
67', Sanchez L. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
67', Quinones D. ↓, Zuleta M. ↑,
68', Montano J. ↓, Yony Gonzalez ↑,
68', Fabra F. ↓, Palacios H. ↑,
78', Cardona J. ↓, Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. ↑,
79', Serna A. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
81', 1 - 0, Zuleta M. ⚽, Cuesta Santos J. D. (A),
84', 1 - 1, Perlaza B. ⚽, Catano D. (A),
86', Catano D. 🟨,
88', Zuleta M. 🟨,
90', Quinones J. ↓, Roa A. ↑,
90', Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. 🟨,
90+4', Mejia R. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 1.

Once Caldas has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ind Medellín is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Ind Medellín may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Once Caldas might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:33. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Once Caldas won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:18. (average 1.4:2).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ind. Medellin	12	6	2	4	19:16	3	20
9	Once Caldas	13	4	4	5	16:16	0	16

Last Results with these Odds

Once Caldas - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 45.3%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
30.03.26	Llaneros SA - Once Caldas	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Once Caldas - Millonarios	1:4 ✺
18.03.26	Atlético Bucaramanga - Once Caldas	1:1 ✺
13.03.26	Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto	4:2 ✺
06.03.26	Deportivo Cali - Once Caldas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TLTWW
- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
30.03.26	Independiente Medellín - América de Cali	2:1 ✺
23.03.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	2:1 ✺
19.03.26	Independiente Medellín - Junior Barranquilla	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Independiente Medellín	1:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
12.03.26	Independiente Medellín - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
13.10.25	Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín	1:5
19.04.25	Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas	2:0
28.09.24	Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín	0:2
16.03.24	Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas	1:2
01.10.23	Once Caldas - Independiente Medellín	2:2
11.05.23	Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas	2:2
24.07.22	Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas	1:1

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