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Current Win Probability
Orenburg 41.8%
Draw 28.5%
Rubin Kazan 29.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
31.8%
30.3%
37.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
31.5%
30.1%
38.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Orenburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Orenburg's performance.
Rubin Kazan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rubin Kazan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (-10.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Orenburg that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rubin Kazan than the current prediction. (+8.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rubin Kazan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Orenburg - Rubin Kazan Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
95. Khodanovich A. (G) 65. Ivashchenko I. 38. Kasimov A. 4. Khotulev D. (C) 3. Vedernikov D. 80. Pykhcheev M. 63. Minatulaev O. 21. Bosch B. 11. Nazarenko E. 77. Kasadzhikov A. 7. Gonzalez J.
25. Nigmatullin A. (G) 12. Arroyo A. 98. Lobov N. 13. Urozov J. 4. Nizhegorodov K. 22. Hodza V. 77. Jukic A. 71. Samoshnikov I. 11. Gripshi N. 23. Bezrukov R. (C) 43. Siwe J.
Substitutes
27. Golybin R. 30. Guzina G. 53. Korobov V. (G) 78. Kul R. 6. Palacios J. 2. Poroykov S. 8. Puebla D. 20. Rybchinskiy D. 24. Sivis M. 59. Syshchenko M. 5. Tataev A. 26. Tsenov E.
27. Gritsaenko A. 18. Ignatiev M. 8. Jocic B. 70. Kabutov D. 86. Korets N. (G) 3. Maldonado D. 59. Motorin D. N. 51. Rozhkov I. 14. Saavedra I. 38. Staver E. (G)
Coaches
Akhmetzyanov I.
Artiga F.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
2', Minatulaev O. 🟨,
13', 0 - 1, Siwe J. ⚽, Samoshnikov I. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pykhcheev M. ↓, Kul R. ↑,
46', Bosch B. ↓, Rybchinskiy D. ↑,
46', Minatulaev O. ↓, Puebla D. ↑,
53', Akhmetzyanov I. 🟨,
54', 1 - 1, Kasadzhikov A. ⚽,
59', Bezrukov R. ↓, Maldonado D. ↑,
59', Nizhegorodov K. ↓, Rozhkov I. ↑,
59', Gripshi N. ↓, Saavedra I. ↑,
69', Samoshnikov I. ↓, Motorin D. N. ↑,
69', Gonzalez J. ↓, Guzina G. ↑,
87', Kasadzhikov A. ↓, Golybin R. ↑,
Penalties (2 - 4)
1, Kul R. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Jukic A. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Puebla D. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Urozov J. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Guzina G. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Hodza V. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Khotulev D. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Jocic B. (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 2.
Orenburg has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Rubin is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Rubin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Orenburg has had a series of away games.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 17:21. (average 0.9:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Orenburg won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.2:1).
Outrights of Russian Cup for now
Rubin Kazan: 2.7% Orenburg: 0.84%
Last Results with these Odds
Orenburg - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 31.85%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.
Rubin Kazan - the odds 2.34 are the expected chance of winning is 37.83%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.
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Khodanovich A. (G) 
Bosch B. 
Gonzalez J. 
Urozov J. 
Hodza V. 
Jukic A. 
Gripshi N. 
Siwe J. 
Guzina G. 
Tsenov E. 
Jocic B. 
Maldonado D. 
Saavedra I. 
Artiga F. 
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