Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 38

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni (Ospitaletto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Ospitaletto		Novara

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.68	3.1	2.48
	2.8	2.96	2.6
	2.72	3.16	2.49	Watch
	2.63	2.8	2.5
	2.77	2.8	2.53	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.03)	2.96 ↓ (3.44)	2.52 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ospitaletto
33.4%

Draw
30.6%

Novara
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

26.8%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

25.6%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ospitaletto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ospitaletto's form might have worsened.

Novara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Novara's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ospitaletto than the current prediction. (+14%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ospitaletto, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novara than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Novara, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ospitaletto - Novara Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH +1 - Novara (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Novara (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
75. Cortese S. (G) 99. Bertoli M. 77. Casali M. 9. Gobbi F. 16. Gualandris M. 20. Maucci G. 26. Mondini G. 4. Nessi R. 28. Panatti M. 2. Regazzetti S. 19. Tornaghi P.	1. Boseggia E. (G) 72. Agyemang G. 36. Arboscello R. 99. Basso G. 20. da Graca C. 8. Di Cosmo L. 7. Lanini E. 3. Lartey S. 26. Lorenzini F. (C) 23. Morosini L. 70. Valdesi A.
Substitutes
22. Bevilacqua A. (G) 14. Contessi A. 79. De Matteis G. 43. Guarneri M. 10. Ievoli M. 23. Maffioletti L. 7. Messaggi C. 55. Mundi R. (G) 11. Pavanello A. 33. Sina S. 13. Sinn L. 21. Torri A.	9. Alberti T. 32. Andreotti R. (G) 5. Bertoncini D. 28. Cannavaro A. 6. Citi A. 19. Collodel R. 65. Cortese A. 71. D'Alessio L. 17. Dell'Erba D. 10. Donadio C. 4. Malaspina M. 21. Ranieri R. 12. Rossetti M. (G) 2. Scarpetta J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Casali M. (Own goal),
30', 0 - 2, Lanini E. ⚽,
43', Valdesi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gualandris M. ↓, Messaggi C. ↑,
46', Tornaghi P. ↓, Sina S. ↑,
52', Arboscello R. 🟨,
55', Lanini E. ↓, Dell'Erba D. ↑,
55', Valdesi A. ↓, Scarpetta J. ↑,
55', Arboscello R. ↓, Cortese A. ↑,
60', Maucci G. ↓, Guarneri M. ↑,
60', Mondini G. ↓, Ievoli M. ↑,
65', Cortese A. 🟨,
72', Morosini L. ↓, Malaspina M. ↑,
85', da Graca C. ↓, Donadio C. ↑,
88', Casali M. ↓, De Matteis G. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 14 and 15).

Ospitaletto has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Novara has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ospitaletto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Ospitaletto	8	4	3	1	14:6	8	15
13	Novara	9	2	3	4	8:12	-4	9

Last Results with these Odds

Novara - the odds 3.3 are the expected chance of winning is 27.89%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CPR Ospitaletto
Italian Serie C Group A
19.04.26	Pro Vercelli - Ospitaletto	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Ospitaletto - AlbinoLeffe	3:0 ✺
06.04.26	Virtus Verona - Ospitaletto	0:0 ✺
28.03.26	Ospitaletto - Giana Erminio	3:2 ✺
21.03.26	Brescia - Ospitaletto	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 LWTWT
- Novara Calcio
Italian Serie C Group A
19.04.26	Novara - Cittadella	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Vicenza Virtus - Novara	3:1 ✺
03.04.26	Novara - Lumezzane	1:3 ✺
28.03.26	Renate - Novara	3:1 ✺
22.03.26	Novara - Alcione	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
21.12.25	Novara - Ospitaletto	0:3

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