Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Round 25

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Den Dreef (Heverlee)

Referee: Bourdeaud'hui S. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	DAZN Pro League 1, Sporza, Sporza


	Oud-Heverlee Leuven		Dender EH

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.3	3.3	Watch
	2.2	3.15	3.4	Watch
	2.25	3.27	3.64
	2.09	3.3	3.7	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.3
	2.17	3.43	3.61	Watch
	2.14	3.2	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.02)	3.25 ↓ (3.3)	3.49 ↓ (3.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oud-Heverlee Leuven
43.8%

Draw
29.1%

Dender EH
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

28.4%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

27.4%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oud-Heverlee Leuven has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Dender EH has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oud-Heverlee Leuven than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dender EH than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	9.1%	18.2%

Oud Heverlee Leuven - Dender EH Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Leuven will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Dender EH will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leuven: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leuven (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Prevot M. (G) 28. Pletinckx E. 34. Nyakossi R. 30. Akimoto T. 27. Gil O. 8. Schrijvers S. 24. Lakomy L. 14. Teklab H. 33. Maertens M. (C) 7. Verlinden T. 19. Ikwuemesi C.	93. Gallon G. (G) 5. Marijnissen L. 21. Cools K. 7. Goncalves B. 70. Sambu M. 17. Mbamba N. 24. Viltard M. 88. Ferraro F. 16. Kvet R. 9. Toshevski D. 77. Nsimba B.
Substitutes
21. Balikwisha W. 6. George W. 39. Kaba S. 5. Ominami T. 99. Opoku D. 95. Radelet T. (G) 9. Traore A. K. 17. Vaesen K. 4. Verstraete B.	23. Acquah D. 90. Berte M. 44. De Fougerolles L. 6. De Kerf B. 1. Fortin L. (G) 27. Jahanbakhsh A. 15. Koton K. 67. Moutha-Sebtaoui N. 18. Rodes N.
Coaches
Mazzu F.	Milkon H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Kvet R. ⚽, Nsimba B. (A),
16', 1 - 1, Ikwuemesi C. ⚽, Maertens M. (A),
33', Ferraro F. 🟨,
40', 2 - 1, Lakomy L. ⚽, Verlinden T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
60', Mbamba N. ↓, De Fougerolles L. ↑,
60', Goncalves B. ↓, Berte M. ↑,
68', Verlinden T. ↓, Vaesen K. ↑,
78', Ferraro F. ↓, Moutha-Sebtaoui N. ↑,
78', Toshevski D. ↓, Jahanbakhsh A. ↑,
80', Schrijvers S. ↓, Kaba S. ↑,
80', Ikwuemesi C. ↓, Verstraete B. ↑,
82', Teklab H. 🟨,
84', Sambu M. ↓, De Kerf B. ↑,
85', Teklab H. ↓, Opoku D. ↑,
86', Maertens M. ↓, Balikwisha W. ↑,
90', 2 - 2, Nsimba B. (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', Gil O. 🟨,
90+5', 3 - 2, Kaba S. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 13 in the zone Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: ) and 16 in the zone Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: )).

In recent matches, Leuven has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Dender EH has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Leuven might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Leuven: Kayo B. (Knock) Maziz Y. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Dender EH: Dietsch G. (Foot Injury) Verrips M. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Dender EH: Goncalves B. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leuven won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:12. (average 1.8:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Leuven won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 3.5:3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Leuven	7	1	1	5	5:13	-8	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
07.02.26	Gent - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	1:3 ✺
01.02.26	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - KV Mechelen	2:2 ✺
24.01.26	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Saint-Gilloise	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Sint-Truidense - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
08.01.26	Preußen Münster - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WTTLL
- FCV Dender EH
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
07.02.26	Zulte Waregem - Dender EH	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Dender EH - Genk	1:2 ✺
25.01.26	Anderlecht - Dender EH	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Dender EH - Royal Antwerp	1:0 ✺
Belgian Cup
14.01.26	Dender EH - Saint-Gilloise	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Jupiler Pro League
24.08.25	Dender EH - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	0:1
11.05.25	Dender EH - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	5:0
19.04.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Dender EH	4:4
15.02.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Dender EH	3:2
09.11.24	Dender EH - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	1:1

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