Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 42

Date: 1 April 2024, Monday

Location: Brunton Park (Carlisle)

Referee: Stockbridge S. (Eng)


	Carlisle United		Lincoln City

	1	X	2
	5.75	3.75	1.65
	5	3.75	1.65
	5	3.75	1.68	Watch
	5.49	3.87	1.66
	5.49	3.87	1.66
	5	3.75	1.65
	4.94	3.84	1.7	Watch
	5	3.65	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.21 ↑ (4.96)	3.78 ↑ (3.74)	1.66 ↓ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlisle United
18.1%

Draw
25%

Lincoln City
56.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.9%

25%

56.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.7%

23.4%

59.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlisle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Lincoln City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlisle United than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lincoln City than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Carlisle United - Lincoln City Predictions

Users Predictions: Lincoln City will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lewis H. (G) 18. Ellis J. 26. Barclay B. 5. Lavelle S. (C) 3. Armer J. 7. Gibson J. 33. Neal H. 22. Mellish J. 19. Robinson J. 11. Butterworth D. 35. Armstrong L.	1. Jensen L. (G) 25. Mitchell A. 15. O'Connor P. 23. Roughan S. 2. Sorensen L. 28. Moylan J. 6. Erhahon E. 10. Bishop T. 7. Hackett-Fairchild R. 9. Taylor J. 18. House B.
Substitutes
13. Breeze G. (G) 27. Diamond J. 32. Emmanuel J. 34. Grehan S. 9. Kelly G. 24. Maguire S. 10. McCalmont A.	16. Burroughs J. 34. Draper F. 17. Duffy D. 22. Eyoma T. 5. Jackson A. 27. Makama J. 12. Wright J. (G)
Coaches
Simpson P.	Skubala M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, House B. ⚽, Taylor J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
53', 0 - 2, Taylor J. ⚽, House B. (A),
58', Ellis J. ↓, Emmanuel J. ↑,
59', Butterworth D. ↓, Kelly G. ↑,
67', Armer J. ↓, Diamond J. ↑,
67', Gibson J. ↓, Maguire S. ↑,
70', Taylor J. ↓, Makama J. ↑,
80', 1 - 2, Lavelle S. ⚽, Maguire S. (A),
82', House B. ↓, Draper F. ↑,
82', Hackett-Fairchild R. ↓, Jackson A. ↑,
85', Barclay B. 🟨,
88', Sorensen L. ↓, Eyoma T. ↑,
90+2', Emmanuel J. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 3, Bishop T. ⚽,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 2.

Carlisle is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Lincoln is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Carlisle could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Lincoln have a series of home games.

In this match Lincoln is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Carlisle won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Carlisle won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlisle United
English League One
29.03.24	Peterborough United - Carlisle United	1:3 ✺
23.03.24	Carlisle United - Stevenage Borough	2:2 ✺
16.03.24	Shrewsbury Town - Carlisle United	1:0 ✺
12.03.24	Carlisle United - Barnsley	2:3 ✺
09.03.24	Charlton Athletic - Carlisle United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.4 WTLLL
- Lincoln City
English League One
29.03.24	Lincoln City - Leyton Orient	1:0 ✺
16.03.24	Lincoln City - Bristol Rovers	5:0 ✺
12.03.24	Lincoln City - Cambridge United	6:0 ✺
09.03.24	Barnsley - Lincoln City	1:5 ✺
02.03.24	Lincoln City - Stevenage Borough	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
16.09.23	Lincoln City - Carlisle United	1:1
English EFL Trophy
30.11.21	Carlisle United - Lincoln City	2:1 penalties
English League Two
19.04.19	Carlisle United - Lincoln City	1:0
English FA Cup
01.12.18	Lincoln City - Carlisle United	2:0
English League Two
23.10.18	Lincoln City - Carlisle United	2:2
02.04.18	Carlisle United - Lincoln City	0:1
26.08.17	Lincoln City - Carlisle United	4:1

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