Match Info

Date: 20 August 2022, Saturday

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford)

Referee: Speedie B. (Eng)


	Oxford United		Morecambe

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	6
	1.53	4.1	5.75
	1.5	4.5	6.25
	1.51	4.2	5.8
	1.53	4.26	6.62
	1.52	4.2	5.8
	1.54	4.4	6.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.72)	4.28 ↑ (3.48)	6.07 ↑ (4.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
62.3%

Draw
22.1%

Morecambe
15.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

26.4%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

27.3%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Oxford United's performance.

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oxford United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.2%	13%	21.7%

Oxford United - Morecambe Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Oxford will win (votes: 15 - 65.2%). Morecambe will win (votes: 5 - 21.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Oxford: 45.7% – 84.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Oxford has the most likely position - 12 (5.92%), has project points - 64, has currently - 3, has a small chance of relegated (8%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (17%), has a small chance of promoted (8%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).

Morecambe has the most likely position - 24 (21.31%), has project points - 42, has currently - 2, has a good chance of relegated (56%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 17, small importance 29, small match rating 23. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Oxford won 2.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match Oxford is absolute favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Oxford won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 15-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Oxford won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English League One
16.08.22	Oxford United - Lincoln City	1:2 ✺
13.08.22	Bristol Rovers - Oxford United	1:0 ✺
English League Cup
09.08.22	Oxford United - Swansea City	3:2 penalties ✺
English League One
06.08.22	Oxford United - Cambridge United	1:0 ✺
30.07.22	Derby County - Oxford United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LLWWL
- Morecambe
English League One
16.08.22	Bolton Wanderers - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
13.08.22	Morecambe - Fleetwood Town	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
09.08.22	Morecambe - Stoke City	1:0 penalties ✺
English League One
06.08.22	Peterborough United - Morecambe	3:0 ✺
30.07.22	Morecambe - Shrewsbury Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English League One
05.04.22	Morecambe - Oxford United	2:1
30.10.21	Oxford United - Morecambe	3:1
English League Two
13.02.16	Morecambe - Oxford United	2:4
26.09.15	Oxford United - Morecambe	0:0
03.03.15	Oxford United - Morecambe	1:1
19.08.14	Morecambe - Oxford United	1:0
22.02.14	Morecambe - Oxford United	1:1

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