The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Derby County 47.5%
Draw 27.6%
Oxford United 24.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
52.7%
26.4%
20.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
53.5%
26%
20.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County's form might have worsened.
Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derby County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (-4.3%)
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH -1 - Derby (2.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Derby County will win
(21 of 25 users predict this - 84%). Confidence interval (95%): 69.63% – 98.37%.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 3 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 23. Ward J. 28. Sanderson D. 5. Clarke M. 2. Murkin D. 27. Travis L. (C) 18. Ozoh D. 25. Brereton Diaz B. 19. Szmodics S. 34. Banel J. 9. Morris C.
1. Cumming J. (G) 2. Long S. 6. Helik M. 3. Brown C. 15. Spencer B. 5. Konak Y. E. 8. Brannagan C. (C) 17. Mills S. 33. Donley J. 44. Peart-Harris M. 27. Lankshear W.
Substitutes
54. Allen C. 4. Batth D. 37. Eames O. 3. Forsyth C. 29. Fraulo O. 22. Johnston M. 6. Langas S. 15. Salvesen L. 31. Vickers J. (G)
10. Emakhu A. 9. Harris M. 21. Ingram M. (G) 32. Jeon Jin-Woo 37. Makosso C. 38. McDonnell J. 24. ter Avest H. 11. ter Haar Romeny O. 4. Vaulks W.
Coaches
Eustace J.
Bloomfield M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Banel J. ⚽, Szmodics S. (A),
26', Ozoh D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Donley J. ↓, Jeon Jin-Woo ↑,
62', Peart-Harris M. ↓, Emakhu A. ↑,
70', Ozoh D. ↓, Fraulo O. ↑,
71', Sanderson D. ↓, Langas S. ↑,
76', Szmodics S. 🟨,
80', Brannagan C. 🟨,
84', Konak Y. E. ↓, Harris M. ↑,
86', Banel J. ↓, Johnston M. ↑,
87', Fraulo O. 🟨,
88', Murkin D. 🟨,
89', Spencer B. ↓, Vaulks W. ↑,
90+1', Murkin D. ↓, Forsyth C. ↑,
90+1', Szmodics S. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
Preview
A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 8 and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 1.
Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
In this match, Derby is considered a favorite.
There will not play in Derby: Widell Zetterstrom J.
(Muscle Injury)
There will not play in Oxford: De Keersmaecker B.
(Shoulder Injury)
Goodrham T.
(Ankle Injury)
Leigh G.
(Calf Injury)
There are questionable in Derby: Clark B.
(Injury)
Elder C.
(Toe Injury)
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Derby won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.3:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).
Outrights of English League Championship for now
Derby: 0.7%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
23
Derby
9
1
3
5
8:15
-7
6
Last Results with these Odds
Oxford United - the odds 4.46 are the expected chance of winning is 20.93%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.
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Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 
Ward J. 
Brereton Diaz B. 
Szmodics S. 
Banel J. 
Helik M. 
Brown C. 
Konak Y. E. 
Allen C. 
Forsyth C. 
Fraulo O. 
Langas S. 
Jeon Jin-Woo 
Makosso C. 
ter Haar Romeny O. 
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