Match Info

Championship - Round 23

Date: 26 December 2025, Friday

Location: Kassam Stadium (Oxford)

Referee: Doughty L. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Oxford United		Southampton

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.75	1.81	Watch
	3.93	3.69	1.9	Watch
	3.73	3.96	1.88	Watch
	3.6	3.6	1.91
	3.83	3.72	1.86	Watch
	3.75	3.8	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↓ (4.13)	3.75 ↓ (3.77)	1.88 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oxford United
24.9%

Draw
25.1%

Southampton
50%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.9%

25.1%

52%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

24.6%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oxford United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Southampton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oxford United than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	7.7%	61.5%

Oxford United - Southampton Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Oxford will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). S`hampton will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for S`hampton: 35% – 88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Oxford (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Oxford (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Oxford (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cumming J. (G) 15. Spencer B. 6. Helik M. 3. Brown C. 26. Currie J. 12. Harris L. 14. De Keersmaecker B. 7. Placheta P. 17. Mills S. 19. Goodrham T. 16. Prelec N.	31. Bazunu G. (G) 6. Harwood-Bellis T. 15. Wood N. 5. Stephens J. (C) 18. Fellows T. 4. Downes F. 20. Jander C. 3. Manning R. 10. Azaz F. 13. Scienza L. 9. Armstrong A.
Substitutes
23. Dembele S. 9. Harris M. 21. Ingram M. (G) 50. Krastev F. 27. Lankshear W. 22. Leigh G. 2. Long S. 11. ter Haar Romeny O. 4. Vaulks W.	19. Archer C. 7. Aribo J. 48. Bragg C. 26. Fraser R. 1. McCarthy A. (G) 17. Quarshie J. 46. Robinson J. 28. Romeu O. 34. Welington
Coaches
Rowett G.	Eckert T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Spencer B. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Goodrham T. ⚽,
29', 1 - 1, Harwood-Bellis T. ⚽, Scienza L. (A),
37', Downes F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Scienza L. ↓, Robinson J. ↑,
56', Downes F. ↓, Romeu O. ↑,
66', Harris L. ↓, Krastev F. ↑,
70', Fellows T. ↓, Fraser R. ↑,
75', Prelec N. ↓, Lankshear W. ↑,
75', Placheta P. ↓, Dembele S. ↑,
85', Azaz F. ↓, Archer C. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Mills S. ⚽, Lankshear W. (A),
90', Mills S. 🟨,
90+1', Mills S. ↓, Long S. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 11).

Oxford is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

S`hampton has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, S`hampton is the team to beat.

There will not play in Oxford: Brannagan C. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in S`hampton: Charles S. (Hamstring Injury) Downs D. (Knock) Edozie S. (Hamstring Injury) Jelert E. (Hip Injury) Roerslev Rasmussen M. (Knee Injury) Stewart R. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Oxford: Phillips M. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Oxford won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Including home match between the teams, Oxford won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Southampton - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 51.99%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oxford United
English League Championship
20.12.25	Charlton Athletic - Oxford United	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Oxford United - Preston North End	1:2 ✺
09.12.25	Blackburn Rovers - Oxford United	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Swansea City - Oxford United	2:0 ✺
28.11.25	Oxford United - Ipswich Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LLTLW
- Southampton FC
English League Championship
20.12.25	Southampton - Coventry City	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Norwich City - Southampton	2:1 ✺
09.12.25	Southampton - West Bromwich Albion	3:2 ✺
06.12.25	Southampton - Birmingham City	3:1 ✺
29.11.25	Millwall - Southampton	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
31.07.24	Oxford United - Southampton	2:0

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