Match Info

DFB Pokal - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn)

Referee: Ittrich P. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Paderborn		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	4.33	4.1	1.73	Watch
	4.25	4.15	1.68	Watch
	3.79	3.42	1.97	Watch
	4.55	3.98	1.68	Watch
	4.4	4.1	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.26 ↓ (5.8)	3.95 ↓ (5.2)	1.75 ↑ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paderborn
22.2%

Draw
23.9%

Bayer Leverkusen
53.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.2%

18.1%

65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.6%

16.7%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paderborn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Paderborn's performance.

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bayer Leverkusen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bayer Leverkusen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.9%	5.9%	88.2%

Paderborn - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Paderborn (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Bayer (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.75 - Paderborn (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (15 of 17 users predict this - 88.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.93% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Paderborn (votes: 2 - 50%). Bayer (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schubert M. (G) 22. Hansen M. 20. Gotze F. 25. Scheller T. 17. Curda L. 14. Baur M. 6. Engelns L. 23. Obermair R. (C) 18. Worner M. 7. Bilbija F. 28. Copado L.	1. Flekken M. (G) 12. Tapsoba E. 5. Bade L. 44. Belocian J. 8. Andrich R. (C) 24. Garcia A. 13. Arthur 7. Hofmann J. 20. Grimaldo A. 17. Ben Seghir E. 14. Schick P.
Substitutes
9. Batzner N. 5. Castaneda S. 26. Klaas S. 30. Marino S. 11. Michel S. 2. Muller R. 41. Seimen D. (G) 3. Sticker J. 27. Tigges S.	28. Blaswich J. (G) 42. Culbreath M. 9. Echeverri C. 35. Kofane C. M. 30. Maza I. 19. Poku E. 4. Quansah J. 18. Sarco A. 11. Terrier M.
Coaches
Kettemann R.	Hjulmand K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Garcia A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ben Seghir E. ↓, Poku E. ↑,
46', Schick P. ↓, Kofane C. M. ↑,
58', Gotze F. 🟥,
60', 0 - 1, Grimaldo A. ⚽,
61', Worner M. ↓, Sticker J. ↑,
66', Arthur ↓, Terrier M. ↑,
66', Belocian J. ↓, Quansah J. ↑,
73', Copado L. ↓, Tigges S. ↑,
73', Hansen M. ↓, Marino S. ↑,
73', Bilbija F. ↓, Batzner N. ↑,
82', Andrich R. 🟨,
83', Hofmann J. ↓, Maza I. ↑,
84', Engelns L. ↓, Michel S. ↑,
90', 1 - 1, Marino S. ⚽, Obermair R. (A),
Extra Time (1 - 3)
96', Kettemann R. 🟨,
96', 2 - 1, Michel S. ⚽, Batzner N. (A),
106', 2 - 2, Quansah J. ⚽, Poku E. (A),
108', Obermair R. 🟨,
110', Marino S. 🟨,
119', Baur M. 🟨,
120+2', 2 - 3, Maza I. ⚽, Kofane C. M. (A),
120+4', 2 - 4, Garcia A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paderborn won 1.

Paderborn is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Bayer is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Paderborn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Bayer has had a series of home games.

In this match, Bayer is considered a favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Paderborn won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:17. (average 1.3:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Paderborn won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1.3:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Paderborn 07
German 2 Bundesliga
25.10.25	Dynamo Dresden - Paderborn	1:2 ✺
18.10.25	Paderborn - Arminia Bielefeld	4:3 ✺
03.10.25	Eintracht Braunschweig - Paderborn	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Paderborn - Kaiserslautern	2:0 ✺
20.09.25	Hertha Berlin - Paderborn	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWWWW
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
26.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Paris Saint-Germain	2:7 ✺
German Bundesliga
18.10.25	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4 ✺
04.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - PSV Eindhoven	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
06.12.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Paderborn	3:1
Club Friendly
21.07.23	Paderborn - Bayer Leverkusen	2:1
German Bundesliga
19.01.20	Paderborn - Bayer Leverkusen	1:4
German DFB Pokal
29.10.19	Bayer Leverkusen - Paderborn	1:0
German Bundesliga
17.08.19	Bayer Leverkusen - Paderborn	3:2
Club Friendly
02.09.15	Paderborn - Bayer Leverkusen	2:0
German Bundesliga
08.03.15	Paderborn - Bayer Leverkusen	0:3

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