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Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich

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Match Info

  • Bundesliga - Round 33
  • Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished
  • Location: Volkswagen Arena (Wolfsburg) 🌤️ ...
  • Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
    • CountryKick-OffTV Channels
    AfricaAfrica—Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
    AlbaniaAlbania18:30Tring Sport 2
    ArgentinaArgentina13:30Disney+
    AustraliaAustralia02:30beIN Connect
    AustriaAustria18:30Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
    BelgiumBelgium18:30Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
    Bosnia And HerzegovinaBosnia And Herzegovina18:30Arena Sport 5P
    BrazilBrazil13:30Caze TV, SporTV
    BulgariaBulgaria19:30Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
    CanadaCanada12:30DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
    ChileChile12:30Disney+
    ColombiaColombia11:30Disney+
    CroatiaCroatia18:30SportKlub 1
    Czech RepublicCzech Republic18:30Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
    DenmarkDenmark18:30See, Viaplay
    FinlandFinland19:30Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
    FranceFrance18:30beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, Free
    GeorgiaGeorgia20:30Setanta Sports 2
    GermanyGermany18:30Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
    GreeceGreece19:30Nova Sports 3
    Hong KongHong Kong00:30beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
    HungaryHungary18:30Arena 4
    IcelandIceland16:30SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
    IndiaIndia22:00Sony LIV, Vision+
    IndonesiaIndonesia23:30K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI, RCTI+
    IrelandIreland17:30NOW
    IsraelIsrael19:30Sport 2
    JapanJapan01:30DAZN Japan
    KazakhstanKazakhstan22:30Setanta Sports
    LaosLaos23:30beIN Connect
    MalaysiaMalaysia00:30beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
    MaltaMalta18:30GO TV, TSN Malta 5
    MexicoMexico10:30Izzi TV, Sky Sport
    MongoliaMongolia00:30Premier Sports 5
    NetherlandsNetherlands18:30Viaplay
    New ZealandNew Zealand04:30beIN Connect
    North Central AmericaNorth Central America—Sky Sports Norte
    North MacedoniaNorth Macedonia18:30MaxTV GO
    NorwayNorway18:30TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
    PakistanPakistan21:30Tapmad
    PeruPeru11:30Disney+
    PhilippinesPhilippines00:30beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
    PolandPoland18:30Eleven Sports 2
    PortugalPortugal17:30DAZN 3, DAZN / App
    RussiaRussia19:30Okko Sport
    Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia19:30MBC Shahid
    SerbiaSerbia18:30Arena Sport 2
    SingaporeSingapore00:30beIN Sports 3
    SlovakiaSlovakia18:30Nova Sport 3, Sport TV2, Voyo
    South KoreaSouth Korea01:30Coupang Play
    SpainSpain18:30DAZN Espana
    SwedenSweden18:30Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
    SwitzerlandSwitzerland18:30Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
    TaiwanTaiwan00:30ELTA Sports 2
    ThailandThailand23:30AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, PPTV Sports
    TurkeyTurkey19:30S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
    UkraineUkraine19:30Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
    United KingdomUnited Kingdom17:30NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go
    UruguayUruguay13:30Disney+
    UsaUsa12:30ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
    VenezuelaVenezuela12:30Disney+
    VietnamVietnam23:30TV 360
    InternationalInternational16:30Onefootball
    Wolfsburg Bayern Munich
    Wolfsburg Bayern Munich
    1 X 2
    #Advertisement. GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ 4.75 4.75 1.57 #Advertisement. Watch and Bet. GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Watch
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    (Initially)    		 4.95 ↑
    (4.48)    		 4.84 ↑
    (4.56)    		 1.58 ↓
    (1.64)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

    • The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Wolfsburg
    19.4%    		Draw
    19.8%    		Bayern Munich
    60.8%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    21.2% 20.9% 57.9%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    19.8% 19.6% 60.6%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)
  • Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+0.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    18.7% 12.5% 68.7%

    Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Wolfsburg will win (votes: 9 - 18.8%). Bayern will win (votes: 33 - 68.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 12.5%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 55.7% – 81.9%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +1 - Wolfsburg (2.14) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 3 - 30%). Bayern (votes: 6 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. PolandGrabara K. (G)
      6. FranceBelocian J.
      3. SlovakiaVavro D.
      4. GreeceKoulierakis K.
    26. FranceKumbedi S.
    39. AustriaWimmer P.
      5. BrazilVini Souza
    24. DenmarkEriksen C. (C)
    21. DenmarkMaehle J.
    11. DenmarkDaghim A.
    17. GermanyPejcinovic D.
    		40. GermanyUrbig J. (G)
    44. CroatiaStanisic J.
      3. SouthKim Min-Jae
    21. JapanIto H.
    20. GermanyBischof T.
      6. GermanyKimmich J. (C)
      8. GermanyGoretzka L.
    17. FranceOlise M.
    10. GermanyMusiala J.
    11. SenegalJackson N.
      9. EnglandKane H.
    Substitutes
    18. GhanaAdjetey J.
    31. GermanyGerhardt Y.
    15. GermanyJenz M.
    19. DenmarkLindstrom J.
    10. CroatiaMajer L.
    12. AustriaPervan P. (G)
      7. JapanShiogai K.
    32. SwedenSvanberg M.
    25. GermanyZehnter A.
    		14. ColombiaDiaz L.
    22. PortugalGuerreiro R.
    42. GermanyKarl L.
    27. AustriaLaimer K.
    39. SenegalNdiaye B.
      1. GermanyNeuer M. (G)
    45. GermanyPavlovic A.
      4. GermanyTah J.
      2. FranceUpamecano D.
    Coaches
         GermanyHecking D.
    		     BelgiumKompany V.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (0 - 0)
    • 36', Kane H. (Penalty Awarded),
    • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
    • 46', Kim Min-Jae ↓, Upamecano D. ↑,
    • 46', Goretzka L. ↓, Laimer K. ↑,
    • 56', 0 - 1, Olise M. ⚽, Laimer K. (A),
    • 58', Jackson N. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
    • 66', Wimmer P. ↓, Majer L. ↑,
    • 66', Eriksen C. ↓, Svanberg M. ↑,
    • 74', Vini Souza ↓, Gerhardt Y. ↑,
    • 74', Daghim A. ↓, Shiogai K. ↑,
    • 76', Musiala J. ↓, Karl L. ↑,
    • 84', Ito H. ↓, Tah J. ↑,
    • 90', Kumbedi S. ↓, Lindstrom J. ↑,
    • 90+1', Shiogai K. 🟨,

    Preview

  • An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
  • Bayern is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 0.
  • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
  • Wolfsburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
  • In this match, Bayern is seen as the favorite.
  • There will not play in Wolfsburg: Arnold M. (Groin Injury) Cleiton (Ankle Injury) Dardai B. (Knee Injury) Fischer K. (Thigh Injury) Rogerio (Muscle Injury) Seelt J. (Knee Injury) Wind J. (Muscle Injury)
  • There will not play in Bayern: Cardozo M. (Thigh Injury) Davies A. (Hamstring Injury) Gnabry S. (Muscle Injury) Kiala C. (Ankle Injury) Mike W. (Hip Injury)
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 18 matches, and goals 17:66. (average 0.9:3.3).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Wolfsburg won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:29. (average 1.2:3.2).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich752025:61917

    Outrights of German Bundesliga for now
    Bayern Munich: 83.49%
    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - VfL Wolfsburg
    German Bundesliga
    03.05.26 Freiburg - Wolfsburg 1:1 ✺
    25.04.26 Wolfsburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:0 ✺
    18.04.26 Union Berlin - Wolfsburg 1:2 ✺
    11.04.26 Wolfsburg - Eintracht Frankfurt 1:2 ✺
    04.04.26 Bayer Leverkusen - Wolfsburg 6:3 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4
    TTWLL
    - Bayern Munich
    UEFA Champions League
    06.05.26 Bayern Munich - Paris Saint-Germain 1:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    02.05.26 Bayern Munich - Heidenheim 3:3 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    28.04.26 Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich 5:4 ✺
    German Bundesliga
    25.04.26 Mainz - Bayern Munich 3:4 ✺
    German DFB Pokal
    22.04.26 Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich 0:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1
    TTLWW
    Latest Head to Head
    German Bundesliga
    11.01.26 Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg 8:1
    18.01.25 Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg 3:2
    25.08.24 Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich 2:3
    12.05.24 Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg 2:0
    20.12.23 Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich 1:2
    05.02.23 Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich 2:4
    14.08.22 Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg 2:0
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - VfL Wolfsburg
    German 2 Bundesliga
    31.10.26 Wolfsburg - Osnabrück ✺
    - Bayern Munich
    UEFA Champions League
    03.11.26 Atlético Madrid - Bayern Munich ✺
    German Bundesliga
    31.10.26 Bayern Munich - Borussia Dortmund ✺

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