What is the expert prediction for Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, May 09, 2026)

Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 33

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Volkswagen Arena (Wolfsburg)

Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 1, Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Belgium	Play Sports 1, Play Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5P
Brazil	Caze TV, SporTV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 10, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI, RCTI+
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 2
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Sport TV2, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, PPTV Sports
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Football
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Wolfsburg		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.75	1.57	Watch
	4.95	4.7	1.58	Watch
	5.08	5.1	1.59
	5.02	4.98	1.59	Watch
	4.75	4.5	1.53
	5.17	5.02	1.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.95 ↑ (4.48)	4.84 ↑ (4.56)	1.58 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wolfsburg
19.4%

Draw
19.8%

Bayern Munich
60.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.2%

20.9%

57.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.3%

20%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	12.5%	68.7%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Wolfsburg will win (votes: 9 - 18.8%). Bayern will win (votes: 33 - 68.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bayern: 55.7% – 81.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Wolfsburg (2.14) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Wolfsburg (votes: 3 - 30%). Bayern (votes: 6 - 60%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Grabara K. (G) 6. Belocian J. 3. Vavro D. 4. Koulierakis K. 26. Kumbedi S. 39. Wimmer P. 5. Vini Souza 24. Eriksen C. (C) 21. Maehle J. 11. Daghim A. 17. Pejcinovic D.	40. Urbig J. (G) 44. Stanisic J. 3. Kim Min-Jae 21. Ito H. 20. Bischof T. 6. Kimmich J. (C) 8. Goretzka L. 17. Olise M. 10. Musiala J. 11. Jackson N. 9. Kane H.
Substitutes
18. Adjetey J. 31. Gerhardt Y. 15. Jenz M. 19. Lindstrom J. 10. Majer L. 12. Pervan P. (G) 7. Shiogai K. 32. Svanberg M. 25. Zehnter A.	14. Diaz L. 22. Guerreiro R. 42. Karl L. 27. Laimer K. 39. Ndiaye B. 1. Neuer M. (G) 45. Pavlovic A. 4. Tah J. 2. Upamecano D.
Coaches
Hecking D.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Kane H. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Kim Min-Jae ↓, Upamecano D. ↑,
46', Goretzka L. ↓, Laimer K. ↑,
56', 0 - 1, Olise M. ⚽, Laimer K. (A),
58', Jackson N. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
66', Wimmer P. ↓, Majer L. ↑,
66', Eriksen C. ↓, Svanberg M. ↑,
74', Vini Souza ↓, Gerhardt Y. ↑,
74', Daghim A. ↓, Shiogai K. ↑,
76', Musiala J. ↓, Karl L. ↑,
84', Ito H. ↓, Tah J. ↑,
90', Kumbedi S. ↓, Lindstrom J. ↑,
90+1', Shiogai K. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Bayern is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Wolfsburg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bayern is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Wolfsburg: Arnold M. (Groin Injury) Cleiton (Ankle Injury) Dardai B. (Knee Injury) Fischer K. (Thigh Injury) Rogerio (Muscle Injury) Seelt J. (Knee Injury) Wind J. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Bayern: Cardozo M. (Thigh Injury) Davies A. (Hamstring Injury) Gnabry S. (Muscle Injury) Kiala C. (Ankle Injury) Mike W. (Hip Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wolfsburg won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 18 matches, and goals 17:66. (average 0.9:3.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Wolfsburg won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:29. (average 1.2:3.2).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
03.05.26	Freiburg - Wolfsburg	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Wolfsburg - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Union Berlin - Wolfsburg	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Wolfsburg - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Wolfsburg	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TTWLL
- Bayern Munich
UEFA Champions League
06.05.26	Bayern Munich - Paris Saint-Germain	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
02.05.26	Bayern Munich - Heidenheim	3:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.04.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich	5:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
25.04.26	Mainz - Bayern Munich	3:4 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.04.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Bayern Munich	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
11.01.26	Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg	8:1
18.01.25	Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg	3:2
25.08.24	Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich	2:3
12.05.24	Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg	2:0
20.12.23	Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich	1:2
05.02.23	Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich	2:4
14.08.22	Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg	2:0

Wolfsburg - Bayern Munich: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide