Match Info

Serie A - Round 5

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday

Location: Stadio Ennio Tardini (Parma)

Referee: Collu G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Parma		Torino

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	3.25	Watch
	2.48	2.98	3.25	Watch
	2.5	3.07	3.34
	2.66	2.80	3.03	Watch
	2.52	3.13	3.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.25)	3 ↓ (3.18)	3.24 ↓ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Parma
38.3%

Draw
32.1%

Torino
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

30%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

30%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Parma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Torino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Parma than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Torino than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	30.8%	19.2%

Parma - Torino Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Parma will win (votes: 11 - 45.8%). Torino will win (votes: 5 - 20.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Parma: 25.9% – 65.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Parma (votes: 3 - 25%). Torino (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Parma (3.73) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.75, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Parma (1.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Parma (votes: 6 - 40%). Torino (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Suzuki Z. (G) 15. Del Prato E. (C) 39. Circati A. 3. Ndiaye A. 27. Britschgi S. 10. Bernabe A. 16. Keita M. 14. Valeri E. 21. Oristanio G. 32. Cutrone P. 9. Pellegrino M.	81. Israel F. (G) 23. Coco S. 13. Maripan G. 44. Ismajli A. 20. Lazaro V. 22. Casadei C. 32. Asllani K. 25. Nkounkou N. 26. Ngonge C. 10. Vlasic N. (C) 18. Simeone G.
Substitutes
11. Almqvist P. 19. Begic T. 7. Benedyczak A. 40. Corvi E. (G) 30. Djuric M. 8. Estevez N. 18. Lovik M. 24. Ordonez C. 65. Plicco E. 66. Rinaldi F. (G) 22. Sorensen O. 63. Trabucchi N. 37. Troilo M.	7. Aboukhlal Z. 19. Adams C. 34. Biraghi C. 21. Dembele A. 66. Gineitis G. 6. Ilkhan E. 5. Masina A. 92. Njie A. 1. Paleari A. (G) 16. Pedersen M. 71. Popa M. (G) 61. Tameze A. 91. Zapata D.
Coaches
Cuesta C.	Baroni M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', Ndiaye A. 🟨,
30', Ngonge C. 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Pellegrino M. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', 1 - 1, Ngonge C. ⚽, Coco S. (A),
50', Baroni M. 🟨,
58', Oristanio G. ↓, Benedyczak A. ↑,
60', Pellegrino M. 🟨,
68', Nkounkou N. 🟨,
70', Nkounkou N. ↓, Biraghi C. ↑,
71', Asllani K. ↓, Tameze A. ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Pellegrino M. ⚽, Valeri E. (A),
77', Ismajli A. ↓, Adams C. ↑,
81', Bernabe A. ↓, Estevez N. ↑,
81', Cutrone P. ↓, Sorensen O. ↑,
87', Vlasic N. ↓, Aboukhlal Z. ↑,
87', Simeone G. ↓, Njie A. ↑,
90+1', Del Prato E. 🟨,
90+1', Pellegrino M. ↓, Djuric M. ↑,
90+2', Njie A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Parma won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Parma could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Parma: Cremaschi B. (International duty) Frigan M. (Knee Injury) Ondrejka J. (Leg Injury) Valenti L. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Torino: Masina A. (Thigh Injury) Savva Z. (Knee Injury) Sazonov S. (Knee Injury) Schuurs P. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Parma: Hernani (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Torino: Anjorin F. (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Parma won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:17. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Parma won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.7:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Parma
Coppa Italia
24.09.25	Parma - Spezia	3:2 penalties ✺
Italian Serie A
21.09.25	Cremonese - Parma	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Cagliari - Parma	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Parma - Atalanta	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Juventus - Parma	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WTLTL
- Torino FC
Coppa Italia
25.09.25	Torino - Pisa	1:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
21.09.25	Torino - Atalanta	0:3 ✺
14.09.25	Roma - Torino	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Torino - Fiorentina	0:0 ✺
25.08.25	Inter Milan - Torino	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
08.03.25	Parma - Torino	2:2
05.01.25	Torino - Parma	0:0
03.05.21	Torino - Parma	1:0
03.01.21	Parma - Torino	0:3
20.06.20	Torino - Parma	1:1
30.09.19	Parma - Torino	3:2
06.04.19	Parma - Torino	0:0

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