Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: COPA SUDAMERICANA - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 6

Date: 29 June 2023, Thursday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Referee: Haro D. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports


	Peñarol de Montevideo		América Mineiro

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.25	2.63	Watch
	3.9	3.4	1.9
	2.6	3.25	2.7
	2.83	3.22	2.64
	2.7	3	2.5
	2.78	3.26	2.54	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↓ (4.32)	3.21 ↓ (3.56)	2.49 ↑ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Peñarol de Montevideo
32.6%

Draw
29.5%

América Mineiro
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.6%

26.1%

52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.7%

26.2%

52.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Peñarol de Montevideo's performance.

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and América Mineiro might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Peñarol de Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+14.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that América Mineiro could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Peñarol de Montevideo - América Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). América MG will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Peñarol: 11.5% – 55.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cardozo T. (G) 13. Aguirregaray M. 3. Menosse H. 15. Rak Y. 27. Lucas Hernandez 14. Garcia D. 5. Cristoforo S. 24. Mansilla B. 8. Rodriguez S. 10. Mendez K. 19. Arezo M.	14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 36. Mateus Henrique 18. Cesar J. 33. Eder Ferreira 6. Marlon 16. Ale 28. Cascardo Lemos B. 5. Emmanuel Martinez 10. Martin Benitez 37. Everaldo 17. Gonzalo Mastriani
Substitutes
29. Alonso Fontes M. D. 7. Carlos Sanchez 4. Ferreira J. 18. Ferreira M. 16. Guisolfo B. 23. Hernandez A. 28. Homenchenko S. 2. Leo Coelho 30. Lopez P. 22. Ramos J. 17. Rodríguez Alonso D. V. 32. Rodriguez R. (G)	99. Aloisio 22. Danilo Avelar 11. Felipe Azevedo 3. Iago Maidana 8. Juninho 21. Lucas Kal 1. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 30. Nicolas Vichiatto 78. Renato Marques 65. Rodrigo Varanda 4. Wanderson 9. Wellington Paulista
Coaches
Rodriguez D.	Mancini V.

Preview

Peñarol has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches América MG is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

América MG could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently América MG have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Peñarol won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.06.23	Montevideo Wanderers - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:0 ✺
18.06.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	1:3 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.06.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Defensa y Justicia	0:3 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
02.06.23	La Luz - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.05.23	Millonarios - Peñarol de Montevideo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 TLLLL
- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
25.06.23	América Mineiro - Internacional RS	1:2 ✺
22.06.23	Grêmio - América Mineiro	3:1 ✺
11.06.23	América Mineiro - Athletico Paranaense	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.06.23	América Mineiro - Millonarios	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.06.23	América Mineiro - Corinthians	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
05.04.23	América Mineiro - Peñarol de Montevideo	4:1

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