Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 37

Date: 18 March 2023, Saturday

Location: Home Park (Plymouth)

Referee: Speedie B. (Eng)


	Plymouth Argyle		Forest Green Rovers

	1	X	2
	1.36	5	8.5
	1.36	5	7.75
	1.33	5.3	9
	1.36	4.8	7.2
	1.37	5.14	8.88
	1.35	4.8	8.5
	1.34	5.2	8.4	Watch
	1.37	5	7.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.44)	5.03 ↑ (4.27)	8.23 ↑ (6.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Plymouth Argyle
69.7%

Draw
18.8%

Forest Green Rovers
11.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.2%

21.6%

14.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.4%

20.3%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Plymouth Argyle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Plymouth Argyle's performance.

Forest Green Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forest Green Rovers than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	0%	7.7%

Plymouth Argyle - Forest Green Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: Plymouth Argyle will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Plymouth has the most likely position - 2 (41.79%), project points - 93, currently - 74, not chance of relegated, a chance of prom. playoffs (49%), a good chance of promoted (58%), a small chance of win league (9%).

Forest Green has the most likely position - 24 (94.32%), project points - 29, currently - 23, a very good chance of relegated (>99%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 12, importance 44, small match rating 28. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Plymouth is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Forest Green has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Plymouth could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Plymouth is absolute favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Plymouth won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Plymouth won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Plymouth Argyle
English League One
11.03.23	Barnsley - Plymouth Argyle	3:0 ✺
07.03.23	Plymouth Argyle - Derby County	2:1 ✺
04.03.23	Plymouth Argyle - Charlton Athletic	2:0 ✺
25.02.23	Peterborough United - Plymouth Argyle	5:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
21.02.23	Plymouth Argyle - Cheltenham Town	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWWLW
- Forest Green Rovers
English League One
11.03.23	Forest Green Rovers - Bristol Rovers	1:3 ✺
04.03.23	Accrington Stanley - Forest Green Rovers	2:1 ✺
25.02.23	Forest Green Rovers - Lincoln City	1:1 ✺
18.02.23	Ipswich Town - Forest Green Rovers	4:0 ✺
14.02.23	Forest Green Rovers - Charlton Athletic	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
20.08.22	Forest Green Rovers - Plymouth Argyle	0:3
Club Friendly
29.08.20	Plymouth Argyle - Forest Green Rovers	2:1
English League Two
16.11.19	Forest Green Rovers - Plymouth Argyle	0:1

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