Match Info

Date: 4 October 2022, Tuesday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Taylor A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	CMore
France	beIN Sports Max
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Portugal	Eleven Sports
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Porto		Bayer Leverkusen

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.6	3.3
	2.1	3.6	3.3
	2.14	3.75	3.4
	2.11	3.65	3.3
	2.13	3.77	3.42
	2.05	3.6	3.4
	2.09	3.78	3.42
	2.13	3.7	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.2)	3.68 ↑ (3.51)	3.37 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
45.5%

Draw
26%

Bayer Leverkusen
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

27.1%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

27.4%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Bayer Leverkusen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.5%	11.3%	14.2%

Porto - Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Users Predictions: 106 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 79 - 74.5%). Bayer will win (votes: 15 - 14.2%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 11.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 66.2% – 82.8%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Porto has currently - 0, has a small chance of 1st (6%), has a small chance of 2nd (15%), has a chance of 3rd (24%), has a chance of round of 16 (21%), has a small chance of qtrs (8%), has a very small chance of semis (3%), has a very small chance of final (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Bayer has currently - 3, has a chance of 1st (18%), has a chance of 2nd (27%), has a chance of 3rd (28%), has a chance of round of 16 (44%), has a small chance of qtrs (15%), has a very small chance of semis (5%), has a very small chance of final (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has big quality 76, big importance 76, big match rating 76. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Two teams are playing changeable.

Porto will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Porto: Fernando Andrade (Injury)

There will not play in Bayer: Bellarabi K. (Knee Injury) Palacios E. (Muscle Injury) Wirtz F. (Convalescence)

There are questionable in Porto: Uribe M. (Wrist Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Porto won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Porto won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
30.09.22	Porto - Braga	4:1 ✺
17.09.22	Estoril Praia - Porto	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
13.09.22	Porto - Club Brugge	0:4 ✺
Liga Portugal
10.09.22	Porto - Chaves	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.09.22	Atlético Madrid - Porto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WTLWL
- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
30.09.22	Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen	4:0 ✺
17.09.22	Bayer Leverkusen - Werder Bremen	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
13.09.22	Bayer Leverkusen - Atlético Madrid	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
10.09.22	Hertha Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
07.09.22	Club Brugge - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
27.02.20	Porto - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3
20.02.20	Bayer Leverkusen - Porto	2:1
Club Friendly
27.07.16	Bayer Leverkusen - Porto	1:1

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