Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 28

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 2
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 2, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 6
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 7
Hungary	Selekt, Sport 1
Israel	Sport 4
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kuwait	KTV Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 3
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Antel TV
Usa	Fubo Latino
World	Onefootball


	Porto		Famalicão

	1	X	2
	1.39	4.33	7.5	Watch
	1.41	4.45	7.4	Watch
	1.4	4.67	9.24
	1.38	4.9	8.53	Watch
	1.4	4.2	7.5
	1.46	4.49	8.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 (1.41)	4.51 ↑ (4.4)	8.06 ↑ (7.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
67.3%

Draw
21%

Famalicão
11.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

21.3%

12.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.8%

19.8%

11.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Famalicão has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Famalicão than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.7%	10.3%	0%

Porto - Famalicão Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Porto (1.67) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Porto will win (26 of 29 users predict this - 89.66%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.58% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 20. Costa A. 5. Bednarek J. 4. Kiwior J. 12. Zaidu 8. Froholdt V. 22. Varela A. 86. Mora R. 11. Pepê 29. Moffi T. 77. Pietuszewski O.	25. Carevic L. (G) 17. Pinheiro R. 55. Ba I. 16. De Haas J. 5. Rafa Soares 6. Van de Looi T. 14. De Amorim M. 23. Gil Dias 20. Sa G. (C) 7. Sorriso 12. Elisor S.
Substitutes
14. Claudio Ramos (G) 52. Fernandes M. 42. Fofana S. 27. Gul D. 74. Moura F. 13. Rosario P. 17. Sainz B. 3. Thiago Silva 7. William Gomes	9. Abubakar U. 18. Beney R. 2. Garcia 77. Joujou A. 28. Pedro Bondo 8. Pena M. 3. Realpe L. 80. Santos P. 1. Zlobin I. (G)
Coaches
Farioli F.	Oliveira H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Zaidu 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Costa A. ⚽, Moffi T. (A),
44', Mora R. ↓, Fofana S. ↑,
45+2', Van de Looi T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Pietuszewski O. ↓, William Gomes ↑,
46', Zaidu ↓, Fernandes M. ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Sorriso ⚽,
56', 🟨,
57', William Gomes 🟨,
61', Moffi T. ↓, Gul D. ↑,
61', De Amorim M. ↓, Pena M. ↑,
69', Bednarek J. 🟨,
70', Varela A. 🟨,
74', Pepê ↓, Sainz B. ↑,
79', Sa G. ↓, Santos P. ↑,
90+1', Sorriso ↓, Beney R. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 1, Fofana S. ⚽, Fernandes M. (A),
90+5', Rafa Soares 🟨,
90+6', De Haas J. 🟨,
90+6', Costa A. 🟨,
90+9', 2 - 2, Pinheiro R. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Porto won 3.

Both teams have triumphed in their latest matches.

In this match, Porto is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Porto: Mora R. (Thigh Injury) Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Samu (Knee Injury) Veiga G. (Yellow Cards) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Famalicão: Aranda O. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Famalicão: Rochinha (Inactive)

We predict that Porto will win today's game, with odds of 1.37.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Porto won 13 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 42:19. (average 2.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Porto won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 24:10. (average 3:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	20:4	16	24
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9:7	2	7

Last Results with these Odds

Porto - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 66.61%, but this team recently wins 89% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
Liga Portugal
22.03.26	Braga - Porto	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Porto - Stuttgart	2:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
15.03.26	Porto - Moreirense	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
12.03.26	Stuttgart - Porto	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.03.26	Benfica - Porto	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WWWWT
- FC Famalicão
Liga Portugal
21.03.26	Famalicão - Nacional	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Famalicão	1:2 ✺
06.03.26	Famalicão - Arouca	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Rio Ave - Famalicão	0:0 ✺
23.02.26	Famalicão - Casa Pia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
18.12.25	Porto - Famalicão	4:1
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Famalicão - Porto	0:1
18.04.25	Porto - Famalicão	2:1
07.12.24	Famalicão - Porto	1:1
13.04.24	Porto - Famalicão	2:2
02.12.23	Famalicão - Porto	0:3
20.05.23	Famalicão - Porto	2:4

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