Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 25

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 4
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Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
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World	Onefootball


	Mainz		Stuttgart

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.8	1.95	Watch
	3	3.7	2.15
	3.45	3.7	2.02	Watch
	3.68	3.9	2.01
	3.74	3.92	1.91	Watch
	3.4	3.6	1.95
	3.79	3.91	1.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↑ (2.92)	3.79 ↑ (3.67)	1.99 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
27.1%

Draw
25.1%

Stuttgart
47.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

25.9%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

26.5%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mainz's form might have worsened.

Stuttgart has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stuttgart's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stuttgart, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.3%	8.1%	80.6%

Mainz - Stuttgart Predictions

Users Predictions: 62 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 7 - 11.3%). Stuttgart will win (votes: 50 - 80.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 8.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stuttgart: 70.8% – 90.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Mainz (2.17) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stuttgart will win (18 of 21 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 2 - 8.7%). Stuttgart (votes: 19 - 82.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Batz D. (G) 21. da Costa D. 4. Posch S. 31. Kohr D. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 6. Sano K. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 2. Mwene P. 20. Tietz P. 23. Becker S.	33. Nubel A. (G) 22. Assignon L. 14. Jaquez L. 24. Chabot J. 7. Mittelstadt M. 16. Karazor A. (C) 6. Stiller A. 18. Leweling J. 26. Undav D. 10. Fuhrich C. 9. Demirovic E.
Substitutes
14. Boving W. 24. Kawasaki S. 15. Maloney L. 48. Potulski K. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 26. Silas 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N.	2. Al Dakhil A. 30. Andres C. 27. Bouanani B. 1. Bredlow F. (G) 3. Hendriks R. 29. Jeltsch F. 25. Jeremy Arevalo 28. Nartey N. 8. Tomas T.
Coaches
Fischer U.	Hoeness S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, Lee Jae-Sung ⚽, da Costa D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
65', Assignon L. ↓, Nartey N. ↑,
74', Becker S. ↓, Silas ↑,
75', Jaquez L. ↓, Jeltsch F. ↑,
75', Fuhrich C. ↓, Tomas T. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Demirovic E. ⚽, Undav D. (A),
77', 1 - 2, Undav D. ⚽, Tomas T. (A),
82', Tomas T. 🟨,
84', Undav D. ↓, Jeremy Arevalo ↑,
84', Mittelstadt M. ↓, Hendriks R. ↑,
85', Widmer S. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 2, da Costa D. ⚽,
90+2', da Costa D. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
90+2', Nebel P. ↓, Boving W. ↑,
90+2', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
90+5', Chabot J. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 14 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 1.

Recent performances by Mainz have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Stuttgart is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Stuttgart may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Stuttgart will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 20:33. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:14. (average 0.7:1.4).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Mainz: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7
15	Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6:9	-3	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
28.02.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Mainz	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Mainz - Hamburger SV	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Mainz	4:0 ✺
07.02.26	Mainz - Augsburg	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	RB Leipzig - Mainz	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 TTLWW
- VfB Stuttgart
German Bundesliga
01.03.26	Stuttgart - Wolfsburg	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Stuttgart - Celtic	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
22.02.26	Heidenheim - Stuttgart	3:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Celtic - Stuttgart	1:4 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.02.26	Stuttgart - Köln	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

German DFB Pokal
29.10.25	Mainz - Stuttgart	0:2
German Bundesliga
26.10.25	Stuttgart - Mainz	2:1
25.01.25	Mainz - Stuttgart	2:0
31.08.24	Stuttgart - Mainz	3:3
11.02.24	Stuttgart - Mainz	3:1
16.09.23	Mainz - Stuttgart	1:3
21.05.23	Mainz - Stuttgart	1:4

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