Match Info

Championship - Round 9

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Fratton Park (Portsmouth)

Referee: Backhouse A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	Paramount+


	Portsmouth		Middlesbrough

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.4	2.35	Watch
	2.95	3.4	2.35
	2.92	3.36	2.43
	3.12	3.48	2.35
	3.08	3.22	2.33	Watch
	2.97	3.36	2.31	Watch
	3	3.4	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↑ (2.92)	3.37 ↓ (3.55)	2.35 ↑ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
31.7%

Draw
28.1%

Middlesbrough
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

26.5%

41.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.5%

25.8%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Middlesbrough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.8%	11.1%	61.1%

Portsmouth - Middlesbrough Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Portsmouth will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). Middlesbrough will win (votes: 11 - 61.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Middlesbrough: 38.6% – 83.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Portsmouth (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Middlesbrough (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Middlesbrough will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Portsmouth (votes: 1 - 20%). Middlesbrough (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Bursik J. (G) 2. Williams J. 4. Knight J. 5. Poole R. 3. Ogilvie C. 7. Pack M. (C) 21. Dozzell A. 36. Chaplin C. 8. Swift J. 47. Yang Min-Hyuk 9. Bishop C.	31. Brynn S. (G) 12. Ayling L. 6. Fry D. (C) 5. Jones A. 2. Brittain C. 18. Morris A. 7. Hackney H. 3. Targett M. 20. Sene M. K. 27. Hansen S. 9. Conway T.
Substitutes
11. Bianchini F. 29. Blair H. 24. Devlin T. 30. Killip B. (G) 18. Kosznovszky M. 16. Le Roux L. 14. Matthews H. 10. Segecic A. 22. Swanson Z.	24. Bangura A. 16. Browne A. 10. Burgzorg D. 42. Kante A. 33. McLaughlin J. (G) 19. Nypan S. 22. Silvera S. 13. Strelec D. 11. Whittaker M.
Coaches
Mousinho J.	Edwards R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Yang Min-Hyuk ⚽, Williams J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Swift J. ↓, Kosznovszky M. ↑,
59', Hansen S. ↓, Strelec D. ↑,
64', Chaplin C. ↓, Segecic A. ↑,
64', Williams J. ↓, Devlin T. ↑,
68', Brittain C. 🟨,
69', Ayling L. ↓, Browne A. ↑,
70', Sene M. K. ↓, Nypan S. ↑,
74', Pack M. 🟨,
78', Yang Min-Hyuk ↓, Blair H. ↑,
83', Bursik J. 🟨,
84', Targett M. ↓, Burgzorg D. ↑,
84', Hackney H. ↓, Whittaker M. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 17 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

Portsmouth has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Middlesbrough is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Middlesbrough may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Portsmouth: Lang C. (Hamstring Injury) Schmid N. (Wrist Injury) Shaughnessy C. (Hamstring Injury) Waddingham T. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Dieng S. (Injury) Lenihan D. (Achilles Tendon Injury) McGree R. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Portsmouth: Murphy J. (Ankle Injury) Umeh F. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Portsmouth won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 1.7:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Portsmouth won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English League Championship
01.10.25	Portsmouth - Watford	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Ipswich Town - Portsmouth	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Portsmouth - Sheffield Wednesday	0:2 ✺
14.09.25	Southampton - Portsmouth	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Portsmouth - Preston North End	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 TLLTW
- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
30.09.25	Middlesbrough - Stoke City	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Southampton - Middlesbrough	1:1 ✺
19.09.25	Middlesbrough - West Bromwich Albion	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Preston North End - Middlesbrough	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Middlesbrough - Sheffield United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
18.01.25	Portsmouth - Middlesbrough	2:1
24.08.24	Middlesbrough - Portsmouth	2:2
03.03.12	Portsmouth - Middlesbrough	1:3

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