Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE ONE - ROUND 41

Date: 10 April 2023, Monday

Location: Fratton Park (Portsmouth)

Referee: Yates O. (Eng)


	Portsmouth		Morecambe

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.33	8.5
	1.44	4.5	6.75
	1.45	4.55	6.4
	1.45	4.68	7.47
	1.44	4.2	7
	1.43	4.55	7.2	Watch
	1.45	4.4	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.54)	4.46 ↑ (4)	7.13 ↑ (5.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Portsmouth
65.6%

Draw
21.2%

Morecambe
13.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.9%

23.4%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.2%

22.9%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portsmouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Portsmouth - Morecambe Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 9 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Portsmouth has the most likely position - 9 (48.54%), project points - 72, currently - 62, not chance of relegated, a small chance of prom. playoffs (6%), a very small chance of promoted (1%), not chance of win league.

Morecambe has the most likely position - 23 (79.06%), project points - 37, currently - 34, a very good chance of relegated (>99%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 15, very small importance 5, small match rating 10. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Portsmouth won 1.

Portsmouth is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Morecambe has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Portsmouth is certain favorite.

Our prediction for today's Portsmouth to win the game is with odds 1.44.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Portsmouth won 3 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 18-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Portsmouth won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portsmouth FC
English League One
07.04.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
01.04.23	Portsmouth - Forest Green Rovers	1:0 ✺
25.03.23	Portsmouth - Port Vale	2:2 ✺
18.03.23	Bristol Rovers - Portsmouth	0:2 ✺
14.03.23	Accrington Stanley - Portsmouth	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TWTWW
- Morecambe
English League One
07.04.23	Morecambe - Plymouth Argyle	1:3 ✺
01.04.23	Barnsley - Morecambe	5:0 ✺
25.03.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
18.03.23	Morecambe - Oxford United	1:1 ✺
14.03.23	Morecambe - Charlton Athletic	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
12.11.22	Morecambe - Portsmouth	1:1
18.04.22	Morecambe - Portsmouth	1:1
11.12.21	Portsmouth - Morecambe	2:0
English League Two
28.02.17	Portsmouth - Morecambe	1:1
16.08.16	Morecambe - Portsmouth	2:0
02.02.16	Morecambe - Portsmouth	1:1
22.08.15	Portsmouth - Morecambe	3:3

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